.jpg)
Over the past decade, Beijing’s resident population of young adults aged 20 to 29 has nearly halved. As the Chinese capital grapples with this demographic shift, young people are recalculating the costs and benefits of life in the city, weighing its enduring magnetism against rising pressures.
Twenty-year-old Zhao Haozhe has never lived anywhere but Beijing. Yet, as a second-year nursing student, he is already looking beyond the Chinese capital as he plans for life after graduation. While confident that his skills will remain in demand in his hometown, Zhao told CNA he plans to prioritize opportunities elsewhere, likely outside China’s first-tier cities, where the cost of building an independent life is lower.
"I am curious about living outside my home city, away from my family, and forging a life on my own," said Zhao, who is enrolled in a diploma program at a higher education institute in Beijing's northern Changping district. "Cost of living and housing rentals are relatively lower elsewhere, so it should be easier to live even without the support of family."
Changing Calculations
Zhao’s mindset reflects a broader recalibration among Beijing's youth. The capital's longstanding appeal as a launchpad for education, career advancement, and upward mobility is increasingly being weighed against fierce job competition, exorbitant housing costs, and the pull of opportunities elsewhere.
Over the past decade, Beijing’s resident population aged 20 to 29 plummeted by roughly 46 percent, dropping from around 4.62 million in 2015 to 2.49 million in 2024, according to calculations published in May by the Chinese business publication *Economic Observer*, based on official municipal data. (Resident population refers to those who live in a locality for more than six months, encompassing young migrants who study or work in the city, not just native-born residents.)
Analysts caution against interpreting these numbers as a simple exodus. The decline must be understood within the context of broader demographic shifts, shrinking youth cohorts, evolving migration flows, and the city's changing urban and labor market dynamics.
"I would be cautious about reading the decline in Beijing's youth population simply as evidence that Beijing is losing its appeal to young people," Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute (EAI), told CNA. "The trend is real, but it reflects several forces operating at the same time."
Nevertheless, the shrinking youth demographic has already sent ripples through the city, notably softening demand in parts of the housing and rental markets. In interviews with CNA, students, real estate agents, and experts described a city that continues to attract young talent, but one where the calculus of staying is becoming increasingly complex. The question is no longer whether Beijing remains a magnet for opportunity, but whether staying has become a more selective and costly proposition for a new generation.
.jpg)
This shifting calculus is already playing out for 22-year-old Cui Xuan. Originally from Shandong province, she is less than two months away from completing her product design degree at a public university in Beijing. After graduation, she plans to take up a job offer in Sydney, where she interned for a year.
Like Zhao, Cui’s decision is not driven by a lack of opportunities in Beijing. Rather, she has begun to question whether the rewards of living and working in the city justify the pressures.
"Commuting in Beijing is challenging," she noted. "I know people in similar jobs who spend two hours each way getting to work. I am not sure I want to do that."
For Cui, the concern extends beyond distance to the sheer pace of life. "In my line of work, the stress and demands of living in a fast-paced city like Beijing can be too much … there is no work-life balance," she said. These pressures have even prompted her to rethink her career trajectory. "I may not want to work in the field I studied," she admitted. "There is more quality of life elsewhere."
The Numbers Behind the Shift
The steep decline in Beijing’s young adult population has significantly altered the age profile of a city that once boasted a far higher share of this demographic than the national average. In 2015, residents aged 20 to 29 comprised 21.3 percent of Beijing's population. By 2024, that share had dwindled to 11.4 percent—nearly on par with the national average of 10.56 percent, according to the *Economic Observer*.
Concurrently, the city's older population has surged. Residents aged 60 and above grew from 3.41 million in 2015 to 5.14 million in 2024. By 2024, for every 100 residents in Beijing, about 11 were aged 20 to 29, while 24 were 60 or older.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s overall resident population has remained broadly stable, edging down slightly from about 21.89 million in 2020 to 21.83 million at the end of 2024. This suggests the narrative is less about outright population loss and more about a demographic reshuffling.
EAI’s Zhao Litao pointed out that Beijing’s youth population decline is not an isolated phenomenon, as the size and share of the 20-to-29 age group have been falling across China. Provinces like Henan, Hebei, and Anhui have also seen clear declines, with Henan’s young adult population dropping from 14.75 million in 2015 to 10.37 million in 2024. However, Beijing stands out because its youth share was once exceptionally high before converging with the national average.
"This looks less like a sudden collapse of attractiveness and more like a correction from an unusually high earlier level," Zhao explained.
Peng Xiujian, a senior research fellow at Victoria University's Centre of Policy Studies, emphasized that the trend is both a demographic and a migration story. China's sustained decline in birth rates and a shrinking youth cohort provide the backdrop, while changing migration patterns, soaring living costs, and Beijing's policies aimed at population control and "reduction-oriented development" have reinforced the trend.
Furthermore, Beijing's large non-local population complicates the data. Despite the drop in younger residents, the city still had 8.19 million non-local residents in 2024—about 37.5 percent of its total population. This is only a slight decrease from its 2015 peak of 8.63 million, a much smaller drop than the plunge in the 20-to-29 demographic. This indicates that Beijing continues to draw people from across the country; rather, the profile of those it attracts—and the threshold for staying—is evolving.
Notably, school-age children were among the few age groups whose numbers and population shares increased in Beijing over the past 15 years. "If Beijing were broadly losing its appeal to families, we would not expect to see this pattern," Peng noted. "Instead, the evidence suggests that Beijing is undergoing demographic restructuring rather than simple decline."
The Rental Signal
This shifting youth profile is perhaps most visible on the ground in the housing market. Tiantongyuan, a neighborhood in Beijing's Changping district long favored by young renters for its relatively affordable housing and convenient metro links, offers a window into how these demographic changes are playing out in real time.
During a visit to the area, CNA spoke with four property and housing agents, all of whom reported that sales and rental activity are noticeably less vibrant than before the pandemic. While there is no official district-level data tracking rental demand specifically among young people in Tiantongyuan, agents estimated based on their transactions that sales and rental volumes have fallen by about 20 to 30 percent over the past three to six years.
Hou Junyi, manager of a Century 21 franchise in Tiantongyuan that has operated for over a decade, attributed the drop to Beijing’s broader population trends. He suggested that softer demand in the area reflects not only the city’s overall demographic shifts but also the shrinking pool of younger renters who traditionally flocked to such districts for affordable homes and transit access.
Hou and his colleagues also pointed to the wider property downturn, noting that weaker market confidence and softer demand have made transactions more difficult than in the pre-pandemic years.
However, the rental cycle hasn't disappeared entirely. Hou noted that demand still peaks during the annual graduation season from June to August, when students hunt for housing near jobs or transit lines. Yet, he emphasized that the volume remains well below the peak years around 2015. "Prices have naturally come down with softer demand," Hou said. "But even with lower rents, it has not really reignited strong interest or brought back a strong rebound."
Another agent, who gave only his surname, Hua, highlighted how agencies are now forced to market homes much more aggressively. Having worked in Tiantongyuan for three years at his family's firm, which has operated in the area for over two decades, Hua noted a stark contrast to the past. "In the past, we did not need to do this," he said, gesturing to the advertising boards and pop-up stalls set up near metro exits. "People would come to us on their own." Now, he explained, "We have to go out and promote the listings ourselves. If we just wait in the office, there may not be enough enquiries."
While Hua has noticed fewer young graduates looking for homes, demand from young families remains relatively steady. "There are still people who want to live here because the transport is convenient and the cost is lower than in the city centre," he said.
Hou believes the shift is also tied to changes in how businesses operate in and around the capital. "Slower growth and the wider diversification of businesses are also playing a part," he observed. "Businesses now have more choices in where and how they operate. They may not need such a large presence within Beijing itself, so job demand has slowed, and that has affected housing demand in popular areas because they offered easy access to the city."
Official data paints a mixed picture for Beijing as a whole. Real estate development investment in 2025 fell 15.5 percent from the previous year, and new commercial housing sales by floor area dropped 6.9 percent. Conversely, Beijing added 330,000 urban jobs in 2025, an increase of 31,000 from the prior year, suggesting the broader labor market retained some resilience even as parts of the property market struggled.
A More Distributed Opportunity Map
For many young people, the decision is not just about whether Beijing remains attractive, but whether other places now better align with the lives and careers they want to build.
Zhang Yinuo, a 22-year-old from Shandong, is set to graduate from a public university in Beijing in August. She has already decided against staying in the capital, opting instead to further her design studies in Malaysia after receiving an offer. Even before this opportunity arose, Zhang said her long-term plans never centered on Beijing.
"It is not that Beijing has no opportunities, but I do not really like the lifestyle here," she explained. For Zhang, the issue is both cultural and professional. She described Beijing's atmosphere as more traditional, noting her long-standing preference for the lifestyle and culture of southern China. "The culture and lifestyle there feel more suitable for people like me who work in design," she said.
Zhang’s choice is deeply personal, but it highlights a broader question regarding Beijing’s changing youth profile: Do the capital’s traditional advantages still align with the careers and lifestyles sought by different demographics?
Analysts note that while Beijing still offers scale, status, and access to major institutions, the map of possible futures is no longer confined to the capital or other first-tier cities, especially for students in design, technology, services, or emerging industries. This is partly because Beijing’s role in China’s economy is becoming increasingly specialized, shaping not only how many young people the city absorbs, but the *kind* of talent it draws.
"Beijing is a special case because it is not an ordinary labour-market city," said EAI’s Zhao Litao. "It is the national political, administrative, cultural, educational, and research centre."
Consequently, Beijing’s population is heavily influenced by policy choices—urban planning, industrial restructuring, and population management—rather than just market forces. "Some lower-end service and manufacturing jobs have been reduced or moved out, while Beijing has strengthened its role in higher education, research, finance, technology, culture, and headquarters functions," Zhao explained. "This changes not only how many young people the city absorbs, but also what kinds of young people it absorbs."
This shift aligns with Beijing's official development direction. The city has actively sought to shed functions non-essential to its role as the national capital, reinforcing its positioning as a political, cultural, international exchange, and scientific innovation hub. At the national level, China’s recent five-year plans have called for a more coordinated urbanization pattern and efforts to help migrant workers settle in a wider range of cities.
Zhao Litao noted that Beijing remains highly attractive to graduates with strong credentials and young professionals in knowledge-intensive sectors, particularly those seeking careers in government, research, finance, media, culture, and technology. "For others, the opportunity-cost calculation has shifted toward Hangzhou, Chengdu, Suzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Hefei, and other cities with growing industries and lower settlement pressure," he said.
Peng from Victoria University agreed, pointing to a redistribution of talent and young workers across China. "It reflects the emergence of a more diversified urban economy," she said. "Improved infrastructure, digital connectivity, and industrial upgrading have created attractive opportunities in a wider range of cities." This trend reflects not only changing preferences but also China's broader success in spreading economic opportunities beyond a handful of major hubs. Beijing remains important, but it is no longer the default choice for every young person seeking upward mobility.
Beijing’s Enduring Pull
Yet, for every young person looking beyond Beijing, there are others just as determined to stay. For them, the capital remains irreplaceable—not only for its universities and employers, but for the specific kind of work and networks it offers.
Gu Ling, a 22-year-old final-year law student from Hebei province, plans to continue her studies in Beijing before entering the legal profession. For many aspiring lawyers in China, postgraduate study has become a crucial step in building the necessary qualifications and competitiveness. Gu believes remaining in the capital gives her the best chance of securing a job, especially since her internship is in the city and her hometown is nearby. "Beijing is still where I feel more comfortable staying," she said.
This pull is equally felt by Xia Xiuze, a 20-year-old physics student from Anhui province. Currently in his third year at a public university in Beijing, he hopes to pursue postgraduate studies and eventually remain in the city for research and development work. "Beijing has long been known as a place that produces top research work in hard sciences and attracts talent in these areas," he said.
Peng from Victoria University noted that Beijing's youth population will likely remain under downward pressure due to China's declining and aging population. Even if the city remains attractive, it will be competing for a smaller overall pool of young people. "The key issue is not whether Beijing can maintain its youth population, but whether it can continue attracting a disproportionate share of China's most talented young people," Peng said. "In an ageing society, human capital matters more than headcount."
For students like Xia, Beijing's concentration of talent and opportunity makes the trade-off entirely worthwhile. "Living in Beijing may come with more pressure than many other places," he acknowledged. "But as long as your ability can help you find work that gives rewards matching or exceeding that pressure, then I don’t see any problem. That is what I want to achieve."