More than 40% of CEOs plan to cut junior roles over the next one to two years and shift their workforce toward mid-level and senior positions, according to a new global survey by Oliver Wyman. Only 17% intend to increase the share of junior roles — a near-complete reversal from the findings just one year ago.
The shift marks a departure from the traditional pattern in which older workers are disproportionately affected by layoffs. Instead, artificial intelligence is enabling companies to automate entry-level tasks while placing higher value on experience and judgment.
“I think the junior level is definitely finding it harder now to enter the workforce,” said John Romeo, who leads the Oliver Wyman Forum. “It’s those mid- and senior-level employees that CEOs are now looking at to drive productivity.”
AI agents are increasingly capable of performing routine professional work — writing code at a junior developer level, qualifying sales leads, and handling other structured tasks. What they still lack, however, is the contextual insight, critical thinking, and wisdom that come from real-world experience.
“Companies are saying, ‘I need someone who’s actually done this before,’” said Ravin Jesuthasan, a consultant and author on the future of work. “Her experience, her wisdom, her critical thinking, and the fact that she solved these problems make her much more valuable.”
The Oliver Wyman findings align with a Harvard University study showing that firms adopting generative AI have significantly reduced junior-level hiring while maintaining relatively stable senior headcount. A Stanford University study from November similarly found that young workers were 16% more likely to lose their jobs in AI-exposed occupations.
Yet leaning heavily on AI and experienced workers carries long-term risks. Helen Leis, global head of leadership and change at Oliver Wyman, warned that companies may create future talent shortages by failing to develop the next generation of leaders.
“To have the mid-level people that can manage an agentic workforce, they need to learn the company and the job,” Leis said.
Some companies are pushing back against the trend. IBM announced in February that it plans to triple its entry-level hiring in the U.S. this year and is rewriting job descriptions for the AI era.
Even for older workers, the shift does not guarantee greater security. “Firms’ commitment to workers is weaker and weaker,” noted labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci of The New School.
As AI reshapes the labor market, the balance of power appears to be tilting — at least temporarily — toward those with deeper experience. The bigger question is whether companies can strike the right balance between efficiency today and talent development for tomorrow.