Last week, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively low despite recent high-profile job cuts by major companies.
According to the Labor Department, initial unemployment claims for the week ending November 22 dropped by 6,000 to 216,000—coming in below economists’ forecast of 230,000, based on a FactSet survey. Weekly jobless claims are considered a near real-time gauge of layoffs and overall labor market health. While companies like Amazon and UPS have announced workforce reductions, such cuts often take weeks or months to materialize and may not yet be reflected in the latest data.
The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, edged down by 1,000 to 223,750.
The labor market continues to reflect a “low-hire, low-fire” pattern: the unemployment rate remains historically low, but job seekers are finding it harder to land new positions. Supporting that trend, the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to 1.96 million for the week ending November 15, indicating that the unemployed are staying out of work longer.
Recent employment reports add nuance: employers added 119,000 jobs in September after shedding positions in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%—its highest in four years—as more people reentered the labor force in search of work but didn’t immediately find jobs.
On the economic front, retail sales slowed in September following three months of solid gains. Consumer confidence sank to its second-lowest level in five years, although wholesale inflation showed modest signs of easing.
Together, the data point to a cooling economy and moderating inflation—developments that have strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting on December 9–10.