When Jonathan Sterling picks up a blowtorch these days, it’s not a figure of speech. The 46-year-old former real estate executive now spends his mornings in an HVAC training facility near his home in Vero Beach, Florida—crawling through ductwork, cutting copper pipe, and learning to work around high-voltage systems. “I’d never used a torch before,” he said. “There are live wires everywhere. It’s dangerous.”
Just a year earlier, Sterling oversaw operations for 35 Keller Williams offices and 7,000 agents, helping generate roughly $13 billion in annual home sales. But after corporate layoffs in mid-2024, he joined a growing wave of white-collar workers questioning what job security even means anymore.
“AI scares the hell out of me,” he told Quartz. The online strategy and digital management tasks he once handled were increasingly being automated. He watched colleagues and friends lose jobs as companies slashed entry-level roles — only to then eliminate the managers who supervised them. “They were replaced by AI at the bottom, and then the company didn’t need the people above them anymore,” he said.
Rather than search for another desk job, Sterling enrolled in an eight-week HVAC training course that cost $2,700. His plan is to work in the field long enough to gain credibility, then move into a leadership role at a growing firm. In his spare time, he’s building Foxtown Education, a website designed to help mid-career workers like himself find trade schools and certification programs.
“People still think their comfortable jobs are secure,” he said. “I figured I’d rip the Band-Aid off early.”
The white-collar crisis of meaning
A new cultural shift is underway. Across social media and weekend conversations, many office workers are daydreaming about leaving behind screen-based jobs for something tangible—welding, automotive repair, carpentry, plumbing. It’s the inverse of the “learn to code” ethos of the 2010s, when tech jobs were viewed as the safest and most prestigious.
Now, with generative AI writing code, drafting copy, and designing graphics, fields requiring tools and manual skill look increasingly stable.
Searches for “trade school for adults” have more than doubled since early 2023. Some HVAC and plumbing programs report application jumps of 10–30%. But so far, the number of Americans actually working in trades has barely changed—still about 13% of the workforce. For every Sterling making the leap, many others are just imagining it.
Still, early labor signals are shifting. In California, the nation’s largest job market, white-collar employment is shrinking while construction and manufacturing jobs are expanding, said Lisa Countryman-Quiroz, CEO of JVS Bay Area, which offers apprenticeships in fields like automotive and water-utility maintenance. “It’s a strong indicator of where things are headed,” she said.
The pendulum reverses
Countryman-Quiroz sees the shift as a reaction to soaring tuition, unstable office work, and persistent student-loan pressure. A traditional degree now averages about $25,000 per year, while apprenticeships and trade programs often lead to union jobs with strong earnings potential—without the debt.
Graduates of JVS programs typically see their income double within two years, rising from around $31,000 to more than $63,000. Water-system maintenance, in particular, faces critical shortages nationwide. “These are highly skilled, technically complex jobs,” she said. “It’s not ‘fallback’ work.”
Still, she emphasizes that this isn’t yet a mass white-collar exodus. What’s shifting first is mindset: the understanding that respected, stable careers don’t have to involve laptops and conference calls.
The appeal of tangible work
For Sterling, the draw is partly emotional. After decades spent managing teams and writing digital ad copy, he enjoys the direct satisfaction of fixing something concrete. “You’re solving a real puzzle, piece by piece,” he said.
He acknowledges the work can be risky. “You can burn yourself. You can explode something,” he joked. “But after a few days, you start to get your bearings.”
Entry-level HVAC jobs start at about $25 an hour, or roughly $50,000 a year. But the field is stable: the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects more than 600,000 maintenance and repair openings annually through 2034. And in Florida, he added, “air conditioning is practically a survival tool.”
What AI can’t easily replace
Hands-on technical roles have remained largely resistant to automation. Even in advanced manufacturing, people are still required to maintain systems, troubleshoot, and problem-solve. “Trade job postings emphasize communication, teamwork, and critical thinking just as much as technical ability,” Countryman-Quiroz said.
But systemic obstacles remain. The U.S. invests far less in workforce retraining than other industrialized nations, and many workers face barriers like childcare costs that prevent them from pursuing new careers.
A different model of security
Sterling isn’t waiting for policy changes. Through Foxtown Education, he hopes to help more mid-career workers understand what trade careers actually look like—and how to get started. His advice: don’t overthink it. “If you’re curious, take a class. Don’t evaluate it through your old job lens.”
Whether the “learn to craft” wave becomes a genuine labor shift or remains more of a cultural comfort fantasy, it reflects something real: the desire for stability, dignity, and work that feels meaningful in a rapidly changing economy.
Sterling says, for him, that feeling has already arrived—blowtorch and all.