The turbulence caused by the longest U.S. government shutdown may still be fresh on the minds of travelers this Thanksgiving, but experts say preparing for the usual holiday crush of winter weather, heavy traffic, and crowded airports can help ease the jitters.
“I think the shutdown at this point is history for air travel. The airlines understand this time of year so well. They know exactly what they need to do,” said Sheldon H. Jacobson, an airport and airlines operations expert. “The real challenge is making sure travelers can help themselves.”
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How busy could it be?
Travel forecasts point to packed airports, roads, and trains.
A week after lifting the unprecedented flight restrictions it placed on commercial airlines during the shutdown, the Federal Aviation Administration is preparing for its busiest Thanksgiving in 15 years, with more than 360,000 flights scheduled between Monday and next Tuesday. That’s more than 17.8 million people who will be screened at airports, according to the Transportation Security Administration.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Monday at a news conference that air traffic controller staffing levels have stabilized in time for what he says will be the busiest Thanksgiving on record for travel, while the head of the FAA reassured passengers that they can “fly with confidence” this week.
AAA projects 1.3 million more travelers will be on the roads than last year, pushing the total number of people traveling by car to at least 73 million.
Winter weather
You can’t control the weather, but you can control how prepared you are if a storm hits. If your flight is canceled or delayed, will you drive instead or postpone, or cancel your trip? Knowing your options ahead of time can reduce stress if a storm leaves you stranded.
The Weather Channel offers a Thanksgiving weekly forecast highlighting major airports and highways that could be affected by bad weather — including snow, ice, and rain — along with a free online tool in the Weather Channel app that shows how or if your travel route might be impacted.
Forecasters warned of flooding rain and the possibility of severe thunderstorms on Monday from Texas to Arkansas and Louisiana into Mississippi. By Monday evening, more than 1,000 flights into and out of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport were delayed, and over 100 were canceled, according to the flight-tracking site FlightAware.
On Tuesday, the FAA’s busiest day with more than 52,000 flights scheduled, forecasters say rain is expected in the Pacific Northwest and in much of the eastern U.S. Airports in Atlanta, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. could be impacted, according to the Weather Channel. Another winter storm in the central U.S. could also take shape late Friday into Saturday.
“The details will come into better focus over the next few days, but anyone traveling home after Thanksgiving should check in on the evolving forecast and be ready for changing conditions,” said Matt Sitkowski, science editor-in-chief at the Weather Channel.
What to pack (and what to skip)
Jacobson, whose research contributed to the design of TSA PreCheck, recommends starting your packing by unpacking.
Check every pocket in case TSA-restricted items, like full-sized bottles, were left behind from a previous trip. This simple scan can help you get through security faster, especially when airports are crowded.
If you’re traveling with gifts, Jacobson suggests wrapping them at your destination because TSA agents may need to open them.
When deciding which clothes and shoes to pack, James Belanger, vice president of meteorology at the Weather Company, said to check the “feels like” temperature for a better sense of the weather, especially for those not used to the cold.
And don’t forget a REAL ID is required to fly within the U.S., or bring another accepted form of ID, like a passport or military ID.
People with iPhones can now also add their U.S. passport details to Apple Wallet, which can be scanned at participating airports if travelers don’t have a REAL ID. More than a dozen states already accept some form of a mobile ID at airport checkpoints, and travelers can go to the TSA website for more details.
Road trip ready
Whether driving is your top choice or backup plan, AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz suggests checking your tires, car battery, and fluids, then hitting the road with a full tank of gas as early as possible to avoid traffic. Last year, AAA said, it responded to nearly 600,000 emergency roadside assistance calls during the Thanksgiving travel period to help drivers stranded by dead batteries, flat tires, and empty tanks.
According to an analysis by Google Maps:
— Traffic on Wednesday is expected to be 14% heavier than usual between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., with peak traffic from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m.
— On Thanksgiving Day, the roads will be busiest between noon and 3 p.m.
— When it’s time to head home, avoid driving from 12 to 3 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday, when traffic is heaviest.
The best passenger
“...is an informed passenger,” Jacobson likes to say.
Download your airline’s app to track your flight status, and check it regularly as your travel date approaches. That way, if your flight is canceled the day before, you can quickly look for alternatives.
Driving or flying, leave earlier than you think you need to. Knowing you won’t have to rush to your destination can help calm any nerves, whether it’s lingering anxiety from the shutdown or because you’re traveling with young kids or someone who needs extra help getting around.
“These are some very simple things to think about, but they’re important things to think about,” Jacobson said.
Old Brick Farm, where Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys, and ducks, was fortunate this Thanksgiving season.
Doll’s small farm west of Detroit had no cases of bird flu, despite an ongoing outbreak that killed more than 2 million U.S. turkeys in the last three months alone. He also avoided another disease, avian metapneumovirus, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs.
“I try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing other animals in from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well,” said Doll, whose farm has been in his family for five generations.
But Doll still saw the impact as those diseases shrank the U.S. turkey flock to a 40-year low this year. The hatchery where he gets his turkey chicks had fewer available this year. He plans to order another 100 hatchlings soon, even though they won’t arrive until July.
“If you don’t get your order in early, you’re not going to get it,” he said.
Thanksgiving costs vary
The shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Despite the increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to prepare the rest of the holiday feast may not be. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased prices for canned goods.
As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples — including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce – cost $58.81, or 4.1% more than last year, according to Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores. That’s higher than the average price increase for food eaten at home, which rose 2.7% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Data showed a 2% decline in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of Nov. 17. Pricing out Thanksgiving meals isn’t an exact science, and the firm’s tally differed from other estimates.
The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey prices, reported that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 would cost $55.16 this year, or 5% less than last year. The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that feeding 10 people on Thursday using store-brand products would cost $80 this year, which is 2% to 3% lower than last year’s estimate.
Tempting turkey prices
Grocery chains are also offering deals to attract shoppers. Discount grocer Aldi is advertising a $40 meal for 10 with 21 items. Kroger said shoppers could feed 10 people for under $50 with its menu of store-brand products.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump touted Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket, which he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that was because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.
“We’re seeing some promotions being implemented in an effort to draw customers into the store,” David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said.
That’s despite a sharp increase in wholesale turkey prices since August. In the second week of November, frozen 8-16 pound hens were averaging $1.77 per pound, up 81% from the same period last year, according to Mark Jordan, the executive director of Leap Market Analytics, which closely follows the poultry and livestock markets.
Avian viruses are the main culprit. But another reason for turkey’s higher wholesale prices has been an increase in consumer demand as other meats have gotten more expensive, Jordan said. Beef prices were up 14% in September compared to last year, for example.
“For a big chunk of the population, they look at steak cuts and say, ‘I can’t or I don’t want to pay $30 a pound,’” Jordan said.
That’s the case for Paul Nadeau, a retired consultant from Austin, Texas, who plans to smoke a turkey this week. Nadeau said he usually smokes a brisket over Thanksgiving weekend, but the beef brisket he buys would now cost more than $100. Turkey prices are also up at his local H-E-B supermarket, he said, but not by as much.
“I don’t know of anything that’s down in price since last year except for eggs,” Nadeau said.
Tariffs and weather
Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are also raising prices. Farok Contractor, a distinguished professor of management and global business at the Rutgers Business School, said customers are paying 10 cents to 40 cents more per can when companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.
Tariffs may be partly to blame for the increased cost of jellied cranberry sauce, which was up 38% from last year in Datasembly’s survey. But weather was also a factor. U.S. cranberry production is expected to be down 9% this year, hurt by drought conditions in Massachusetts, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
In Illinois, where most of the country’s canning pumpkins are grown, dry weather actually helped pumpkins avoid diseases that are more prevalent in wet conditions, said Raghela Scavuzzo, an associate director of food systems development at the Illinois Farm Bureau and the executive director of the Illinois Specialty Growers Association. Datasembly found that a 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix cost 5% less than last year.
Farm to table
Back at Old Brick Farm, which has been in his family since 1864, Doll walked among his turkeys the week before Thanksgiving, patting their heads as they waddled between their warm barn and an open pasture. In a few days, he planned to deliver them to an Amish butcher.
Doll sold all 92 turkeys he raised this year, with customers paying $6.50 per pound for what many tell him is the best turkey they’ve ever tasted. He enjoys a little profit, he said, and the good feeling of supplying a holiday meal.
“I just love it, to think that, you know, not only are we providing them food, but the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner,” he said.