Despite dire predictions from some technologists and CEOs that AI will eliminate white-collar jobs, the reality is more nuanced. For now, AI is less likely to steal your job than to transform it, according to workplace experts.
The next few years will likely be a period of adjustment as companies and workers navigate AI’s capabilities, Business Insider reports. “It’s still very, very early,” said Martha Gimbel, executive director and co-founder of Yale’s Budget Lab. She noted that fears of AI as an immediate job-killer are overblown, describing the debate as “a little bit out of control.”
Research from the Budget Lab shows that, nearly three years after ChatGPT’s release, the labor market has not faced significant disruptions. This is because adopting transformative technologies often takes years, even decades. “It’s not like ChatGPT launches and marketing departments instantly know what to do,” Gimbel explained. The technology’s sudden prominence and personal impact make people expect rapid economic upheaval, but change is gradual.
Jobs Are Evolving
While widespread job losses haven’t materialized, AI is already altering how work gets done. A September Pew Research Center survey found that over one in five U.S. workers use AI for some tasks, up from 16% a year ago. Roles in customer service and communications—keyboard-intensive fields—are particularly affected, as AI excels in these areas.
A Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study estimated that generative AI could save communications staff 26% to 36% of their time. With process changes, savings could reach 47%, according to BCG’s global chief communications officer, Russell Dubner. However, he cautioned it might take years to realize these gains fully. BCG’s own communications team tested AI to streamline repetitive tasks, freeing up capacity equivalent to 13 full-time staff. Dubner noted that employers are focused on using AI to create “new capacity for broader or higher-value work,” rather than just cutting costs. Clients see up to 80% of corporate affairs roles as augmentable by AI, prioritizing efficiency.
Automating Tasks, Not Entire Jobs
Futurist Martin Ford, author of *Rise of the Robots*, told Business Insider that AI is more likely to take over specific tasks than entire jobs—at least initially. Over time, this could reduce hiring. For example, if AI handles half the tasks of two workers, a company might eventually need only one employee. “Management will look at that and say, ‘There’s really only one job here,’” Ford said.
The impact is more visible in specific industries or regions. Mona Mourshed, founding CEO of Generation, a nonprofit focused on economic mobility, said that entry-level job vacancies in “AI-exposed” fields like tech, customer service, and sales have dropped 20% to 40% in some cases. However, she noted it’s hard to isolate AI’s role amid economic uncertainty and shifting global supply chains.
Mixed Economic Signals
Economic data on AI’s impact is conflicting. The Economic Innovation Group found that workers “highly exposed” to AI—those with higher education and earnings—are faring better, with lower unemployment rates. Conversely, a Stanford study reported a 13% relative employment drop for early-career workers (early to mid-20s) in AI-susceptible fields. Gimbel pointed out that employers’ recent “slow to fire, slow to hire” approach limits opportunities for younger workers, as fewer openings arise when established workers stay put.
The Road Ahead
Mourshed estimated it will take another 12 to 18 months to gauge AI’s true impact. “We’re in the first stage,” she said. “We can hypothesize, but no one knows yet.” For now, AI is reshaping jobs, not erasing them, as workers and companies adapt to its potential.