As the White House unveiled a sprawling new list of tariffs last night, I can't help but think about The Art of the Deal.
The 1987 book is one that put President Trump on the map for many people, and his ghostwriter, journalist Tony Schwartz, once wrote: “Deals are my art form. Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals, preferably big deals. That’s how I get my kicks.”
Only time will tell if the tariffs end up being a good deal for the U.S. economy, or a bad one. In the interim, economists overwhelmingly agree that prices will rise as businesses absorb the costs and pass them on to consumers. U.S. and global markets fell on Friday as investors reacted to the news.
Of course, there's also the courts to think about. There’s still a chance the tariffs get struck down as the case inches closer to the Supreme Court, which is expected to make the final ruling.
OpenAI has secured $8.3 billion at a $300 billion valuation, The New York Times reports, in a fresh round of venture capital funding that puts the ChatGPT maker ahead of its own schedule to raise $40 billion by 2026. In a round that was five-times oversubscribed, the largest investment, $2.8 billion, came from a California-based firm called Dragoneer, which has in recent memory made savvy, early bets on juggernauts including Airbnb and Uber. Other first-time OpenAI investors included Blackstone, TPG, and T. Rowe Price.
A Florida jury found Tesla partially liable in a fatal 2019 crash that involved its Autopilot technology, awarding $329 million in damages. Tesla tried to fault the driver of a Model S using Enhanced Autopilot, who assumed the vehicle would brake, if needed, as he scrambled to recover his fallen phone. The car sped through an intersection, and the resulting crash killed one person and injured another. Tesla says it plans to appeal the decision.
Delta Air Lines has responded to critics including U.S. senators, clarifying that it is not moving toward AI-powered pricing based on individual consumer data. CEO Ed Bastian called recent reports "misinformation," and rejected the idea that the airline would hike fares based on "willingness to pay," as legislators put it in a letter to the company. Delta says it's working with an AI tech company to adjust 3% of fares based on aggregated data, with plans to expand to 20% by the end of the year.
The head of the agency that compiles the closely watched monthly jobs report usually toils in obscurity, but on Friday, the current holder of that job was loudly fired by the president of the United States.
Erika McEntarfer, a longtime government employee, bore the brunt of President Donald Trump’s unhappiness with Friday’s jobs report, which showed that hiring had slowed in July and was much less in May and June than previously estimated. He accused her without evidence of manipulating the job numbers and noted she was an appointee of President Joe Biden.
McEntarfer, a longtime government worker who had served as BLS head for a year and a half, did not immediately respond to a request for comment by The Associated Press. But her predecessor, overseeing the jobs agency, former co-workers and associates have denounced the firing, warning about its repercussions and saying McEntarfer was nonpolitical in her role.
Here’s what to know about Erika McEntarfer:
McEntarfer has a strong background in economics
McEntarfer, whose research focuses on job loss, retirement, worker mobility, and wage rigidity, had previously worked at the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies, the Treasury Department’s Office of Tax Policy, and the White House Council of Economic Advisers in a nonpolitical role.
She has a bachelor’s degree in Social Science from Bard College and a doctoral degree in economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
She was confirmed as BLS head on a bipartisan vote
McEntarfer was nominated in 2023 to serve as BLS head, and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions recommended that her nomination go to the full Senate for a vote.
She was confirmed as BLS commissioner in January 2024 on a bipartisan 86-8 Senate vote. Among the Republican senators who voted to confirm her were then-Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, who is now Trump’s vice president, and then-Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who is now Trump’s Secretary of State.
“The many reasons to quickly confirm Dr. McEntarfer as the new BLS Commissioner all boil down to this: the agency, like the entire statistical system, is undergoing an intense, significant period of change and Dr. McEntarfer’s wealth of research and statistical experience have equipped her to be the strong leader that BLS needs to meet these challenges,” Friends of the BLS wrote.
Her former associates and co-workers decry her firing
William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner in 2019 by Trump and served until 2023 during President Joe Biden’s administration, called McEntarfer’s firing “groundless” and said in an X post that it “sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau.”
Former Labor Department chief economist Sarah J. Glynn, who received regular briefings from McEntarfer about BLS findings, said McEntarfer was generous with her time explaining what conclusions could or couldn’t be reached from the data.
If the data didn’t support something an administration official was saying, McEntarfer would say so, Glynn said. She also never weighed in on how the administration should present or interpret the data, Glynn said — she would simply answer questions about the data.
“She had a sterling reputation as someone concerned about the accuracy of the data and not someone who puts a political spin on her work,” Glynn said.
Heather Boushey, a senior research fellow at Harvard University, served with McEntarfer on the White House Council of Economic Advisers and said McEntarfer never talked politics at work.
“She showed up every day to focus on the best analysis and the best approach to her field and not get political. That is what I saw from her time and again. She is brilliant and well-respected among labor economists generally,” Boushey said. “She wasn’t coming into my office to talk politics or the political implications of something. She definitely wasn’t engaging on that side of things.”
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the nonprofit that distributes funding to NPR, PBS, and public radio and TV stations across the U.S., has announced it will shut down. The move comes after a congressional vote to pull $1.1 billion in federal funding, and it's the culmination of a White House effort to "claw back" funds that were already allocated to CPB for the next two years. CPB says most positions will "conclude" Sept. 30, though "a small transition team" will stay on until January.
The Athletic just reported that the NFL has struck a deal with ESPN for access to RedZone, NFL Network, 7 regular-season games, the NFL’s fantasy football business, and the potential to integrate special features in exchange for equity in ESPN (Disney).
🏈 Why the NFL did it:
Simple. The NFL gets equity upside in Disney, which at $200B (almost 50% of its all-time high) may be undervalued, in return for assets that have historically been undermonetized and trending in the wrong direction.
📺 Why ESPN wins big:
For ESPN, however, the deal is genius. The deal will create value for ESPN immediately in 3 areas:
💰 Affiliate fees: ESPN currently commands the highest affiliate fee in the industry (~$10 / month). Affiliate fees drive ~80% of ESPN’s revenue, and in recent years, platforms like YouTube TV have tried (albeit unsuccessfully) to negotiate that rate down. By comparison, Affiliate fees for NFL Network hover around ~$2 / m, and RedZone costs ~$15 / mo as a standalone offering. If ESPN can increase its affiliate fees by even $2 to ~$12 / mo (still well-below the value they are generating), the company will stand to make an additional ~$2B annually (70M households x $24 increase in ARPU)
📺 ESPN DTC offering: In a few weeks, ESPN is launching its $29.99 / month DTC offering - aptly named ‘ESPN’. Before this deal, the value proposition at that price felt weak. Many fans already access ESPN via cable or opt into NFL content via Sunday Ticket. Adding RedZone changes that. ESPN will be able to bring a new audience into the fold and solve the cold-start problem they may have faced in launching their app.
📱 The ESPN super app: My colleague Aaron Miller recently wrote a great post about the potential of sports score apps—one of the most under-monetized consumer platforms out there. ESPN has been trying to fix its own positioning in the sports app scene (as companies like Real Sports have taken meaningful share). Getting access to the NFL’s fantasy football business, which could allow ESPN to more directly compete with Sleeper and others, and better betting features could allow ESPN to keep monetizing users on the app much more effectively than they have to date
I think the NFL / ESPN deal is a blueprint for leagues with undermonetized digital assets. Look for even more leagues (like the NBA with NBATV) to trade content rights for equity in distribution platforms.
Google announced the rollout of its Gemini 2.5 Deep Think artificial intelligence model on Friday, releasing the tool to its paid Ultra subscribers. First unveiled in the spring, Gemini 2.5 is a "multi-agent" reasoning model, making it well-suited for devising "creative solutions to complex problems" such as math and coding, Google says. A different version of the model earned a gold medal score at the International Mathematical Olympiad last month; Google says it is also releasing that version to a group of mathematicians and researchers.
The U.S. stock market had its worst day since May on Friday after the government reported a sharp slowdown in hiring and President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from several U.S. trading partners.
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, its biggest decline since May 21 and its fourth straight loss. The index also posted a 2.4% loss for the week, marking a sharp shift from last week’s record-setting streak of gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 2.2%.
Worries on Wall Street about a weakening economy were heavily reinforced by the latest report on job growth in the U.S. Employers added just 73,000 jobs in July. That is sharply lower than economists expected. The Labor Department also reported that revisions shaved a stunning 258,000 jobs off May and June payrolls.
Markets also reacted to the latest tariff news. President Donald Trump announced tariff rates on dozens of countries and pushed back the scheduled effective date to Aug. 7, adding more uncertainty to the global trade picture.
“The market has been felled by a one-two punch of additional tariffs, as well as the weaker-than-expected employment data— not only for this month, but for the downward revisions to the prior months,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Trump’s decision to order the immediate firing of the head of the government agency that produces the monthly jobs figures will only fuel the market’s uncertainty, Stovall added.
The surprisingly weak hiring numbers led investors to step up their expectations for an interest rate cut in September. The market’s odds of a quarter-point cut by the Federal Reserve rose to around 87% from just under 40% a day earlier, according to data from CME FedWatch.
The question now: Will the Fed’s policymakers consider a half-point cut next month, or even a quarter-point cut sometime before their next committee meeting, Stovall said.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.21% from 4.39% just before the hiring report was released. That’s a big move for the bond market. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed actions, plunged to 3.68% from 3.94% just before the report’s release.
The Fed has held rates steady since December. A cut in rates would give the job market and overall economy a boost, but it could also risk fueling inflation, which is hovering stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target.
An update on Thursday for the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation showed that prices ticked higher in June, rising to 2.6% from 2.4% in May. The Fed has remained cautious about cutting interest rates because of worries that tariffs will add more fuel to inflation and weigh down economic growth.
The central bank, though, also counts “maximum employment” as one of its two mandates along with keeping prices stable. Issues with either of those goals could prompt a shift in policy.
The Fed held rates steady again at its most recent meeting this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been pressured by Trump to cut the benchmark rate, though that decision isn’t his to make alone, but belongs to the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee.
“What had looked like a Teflon labor market showed some scratches this morning, as tariffs continue to work their way through the economy,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “A Fed that still appeared hesitant to lower rates may see a clearer path to a September cut, especially if data over the next month confirms the trend.”
Businesses, investors, and the Fed are all operating under a cloud of uncertainty from Trump’s tariff policy. The latest moves give 66 countries, the European Union, Taiwan, and the Falkland Islands another seven days, instead of taking effect on Friday, as Trump stated earlier.
Companies have been warning investors that the policy, with some tariffs already in effect while others change or get extended, has made it difficult to make forecasts. Walmart, Procter & Gamble, and many others have warned about import taxes raising costs, eating into profits and raising prices for consumers.
Internet retail giant Amazon fell 8.3%, despite reporting encouraging profit and sales for its most recent quarter. Technology behemoth Apple fell 2.5% after also beating Wall Street’s profit and revenue forecasts. Both companies face tougher operating conditions because of tariffs, with Apple forecasting a $1.1 billion hit from the fees in the current quarter.
Exxon Mobil fell 1.8% after reporting that profit dropped to the lowest level in four years and sales fell as oil prices slumped as OPEC+ ramped up production.
All told, the S&P 500 fell 101.38 points to 6,238.01. The Dow dropped 542.40 points to 43,588.58, and the Nasdaq gave up 472.32 points to finish at 20,650.13.
Stocks fell across the world. Germany’s DAX fell 2.7% and France’s CAC 40 fell 2.9%. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 3.9%.
🛑 Big Jobs Report Revisions from the BLS 📉
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just released major downward revisions to its previously reported job growth numbers—signaling a much weaker labor market than we thought.
🔻 May 2025: Originally reported as +144,000 jobs ➡️ revised to just +19,000
🔻 June 2025: Originally +147,000 ➡️ revised to only +14,000
That’s a combined drop of 258,000 jobs for May and June—📊 the largest two-month downward revision since 2020.
Why does this matter?
We could be seeing a shift in the overall economic narrative flipping from being resilient to weakening.