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US consumers happier about finances, expect stable inflation, New York Fed says



  • McDonald’s is introducing three spicy versions of the McMuffin. The limited-time menu items are part of a celebration of 50 years of the McMuffin – and come after other fast food chains have embraced spicy menu items. Also on the way is a double burger.

Breakfast is getting spicier at Micky D’s.

McDonald’s has announced three new limited-time breakfast menu items that kick up the heat: a Spicy McMuffin, Spicy Sausage McMuffin, and a Spicy Sausage McMuffin with Egg. Each will feature the usual ingredients for the long-time fast food breakfast option, but they’ll also come with a Spicy Pepper Sauce.

The sandwiches went on sale Tuesday at participating restaurants.

The spicy take on breakfast comes as McDonald’s celebrates 50 years of the McMuffin, which launched in 1975. Herb Peterson, a McDonald’s franchisee in Santa Barbara, Calif., is credited with coming up with the breakfast sandwich idea, though he positioned it initially as a to-go version of Eggs Benedict.

Spicy foods are … well, hot right now. Last month, Taco Bell announced a partnership with Mike’s Hot Honey for a limited-time dipping sauce. Wendy’s introduced a Cajun Crunch Chicken Sandwich in April, and Chick-fil-A brought back its Spicy Deluxe sandwich at the start of the year.

McDonald’s, meanwhile, has been on a mission to lure back customers whose allegiance to the brand has fallen in the past couple of years.

 Americans' outlook on inflation was little changed last month as households upgraded their views on the state of their finances and ability to get credit, according to a report released on Tuesday by the New York Federal Reserve.

As of June, inflation one year from now was expected to be 3%, down from the expected 3.2% in May, while the outlooks at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.6%, respectively, according to the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Amid the calm outlook for future price increases, the survey found that respondents had "markedly" upgraded their assessment of their personal financial situation relative to last year, while noting credit had grown easier to access. Respondents also upgraded their expectations about the state of their financial situations a year from now.
The survey found mixed expectations for future earnings and income in June, while the employment outlook improved.
Although the New York Fed found in its poll that the public's outlook for inflation was little changed last month, households projected in June an acceleration in year-ahead gains in the cost of gasoline, medical care, college, and rent, while the expected rise in food costs held steady relative to May.
Near-term inflation expectations recorded by the New York Fed have been volatile this year as President Donald Trump launched an aggressive trade war against many U.S. trading partners. The president's trade agenda, which features the imposition of high tariffs on imported goods, is widely expected to push up inflation and depress growth and hiring.
Those import levies helped drive up near-term expected inflation, and as the president appears to have capitulated so far on the most draconian of his levies, worries about higher inflation have eased. Other surveys, like the University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment have also shown reduced worries about future inflation.
Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations have remained mostly stable, which is good news for Fed officials, who believe that development suggests confidence that over the long run inflation will not be a major concern.
Fed officials, however, are expecting higher inflation this year due to the tariffs, which they expect to wane starting next year. Fed officials penciled in two rate cuts for this year at their policy meeting last month, but offered little guidance as to when that might happen. Some Fed officials were eyeing the July 29-30 policy meeting as a good time for a rate cut, but solid job market data for June appears to have taken that idea off the board.
In comments after the June 17-18 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem."
U.S. small-business confidence slipped in June, as firms overall felt they had too much inventory on hand amid ongoing trade tensions and declining optimism over the outlook for sales.
The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index fell two tenths of a point last month to 98.6.
A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline, the NFIB said, with nearly one in eight businesses reporting inventories were "too high" in June, almost double that in May.
At the same time, the survey showed a drop in the share of those expecting improved sales in the next three months, to a net 7% from 10% in May.
Respondents also reported a substantial decline in how they see the health of their own businesses, with 49% reporting "good" and 8% reporting "excellent," down from 55% and 14%, respectively, in May. Those reporting fair or poor business health increased.
The survey's uncertainty index, meanwhile fell 5 points to 89, still high by historical standards but the lowest reading this year.
President Donald Trump's trade and other policy priorities have been key drivers of uncertainty. This week, the level of tariffs that U.S. trading partners will face came into sharper focus, as Trump told Japan and South Korea their goods would be subject to a 25% tariff starting Aug. 1 in what was expected to be the first of several other tariff announcements in the coming days.
Last week, Trump signed his sprawling domestic policy bill into law. He and his Republican allies say the "big beautiful bill" will boost economic growth. Democrats note that it will knock millions off of health insurance, and a non-partisan analysis found that it will add $3 trillion to the nation's debt.
"Democrats are depressed, Republicans jubilant," the NFIB report said, noting a partisan divide in sentiment that's evident in other confidence surveys as well.
"Just how this will shape their spending is less clear. As uncertainty is resolved, the outlook will become clearer."
The proportion of respondents expecting better business conditions slipped to a net 22%, from 25% in May, but still higher than the historical average of 3%, according to the report.
Some 19% of small business owners said taxes were their most important problem, making it the top concern overall; just 3% ranked finances and interest rates as their top problem, putting it at the bottom of their concerns. Some 11% ranked inflation as their top issue, down 3 points from May and the lowest reading since September 2021, as price pressures continued to ease.
The report does not list "tariffs" or "trade" as options on its "single-most-important-problem" list.
The survey was consistent with a slowing labor market, with the share of owners reporting labor quality as the single most important problem for their business staying near the levels seen in the spring of 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The share raising compensation increased to 33%, up 7 points from May, even as the net percent planning an increase in the next three months slipped to 19% from 20% in May.

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