While the broader job market cools—with unemployment ticking up to 4.2% in late 2026—the skilled trades are experiencing a massive, unprecedented boom.
According to a new report by Jobs for the Future and The Burning Glass Institute, *1.7 million skilled trade jobs will open every single year through 2035.* That includes 600,000 net-new roles, plus a massive wave of retirements.
From electricians and plumbers to carpenters and maintenance workers, the demand is staggering. But here’s the catch: experts have no idea who is going to fill them.
If you’re a job seeker, a career changer, or an employer, here is what you need to know about the greatest labor shortage of our generation.
The Boom: AI and Infrastructure Are Driving Demand
This isn’t just about fixing leaky faucets. The modern skilled trade workforce is being supercharged by massive national infrastructure projects.
Matt Sigelman, President of the Burning Glass Institute, points out that the explosion of *AI data centers*, expanding power grids, and booming housing developments are creating a goldmine for trade workers. Even as nonfarm payrolls struggle to meet expectations in other sectors, trade opportunities are multiplying.
But there’s a "Silver Tsunami" coming, too. Nearly 25% of current trade workers are 55 or older, while only 11% are under 25. As Sigelman puts it, the industry is essentially "running in place," just trying to replace the one in twelve jobs that need to be filled by retirees over the next five years.
The Paycheck: Forget the "Starving Tradesman" Myth
Let’s talk money. The outdated stigma that trade jobs are a fallback for those who "couldn't hack" college is dead—and the paychecks prove it.
While the average starting salary for a recent college grad hovers around $56,153, many skilled trades blow that number out of the water:
* Elevator and escalator installers/repairers: ~$110,000 median annual wage.
* Nuclear power reactor operators: ~$123,000 median annual wage.
The Stigma: Parents Are Proud, But Teens Aren't Buying It
If the pay is great and the job security is bulletproof, why the shortage? Blame the perception gap.
A recent Ad Council survey of over 5,000 high schoolers and parents revealed a glaring disconnect:
* Only **9% of teens** are actually considering the trades for their post-grad careers (compared to 56% eyeing a traditional four-year college).
* Yet, **71% of teens** say they’d be proud to go to trade school, and **81% of parents** say they’d be proud of their kids for choosing a trade.
People respect the work, but they don’t see *themselves* doing it. As Sigelman notes, the public views the trades "in a single sweep of the hand," completely ignoring the 124 distinct, lucrative career paths available.
The "Leaky Pipe": It’s Not Just About Recruiting
Here is the harsh reality for employers: getting people interested isn't enough if you can't keep them.
The industry is suffering from a "leaky pipe." **Less than half** of those who start postsecondary trade programs or registered apprenticeships actually finish them. Worse, five years after completing their training, only about 30% are still working in the field.
Why the high turnover? Structural headaches.
* Carpenters lose crucial apprenticeship hours to weather delays and project stalls.
* Plumbers face a nightmare of fragmented licensing requirements that change from state to state—and sometimes county to county.
For Job Seekers: The trades are currently a buyer’s market. If you want high pay, incredible job security, and a career that can't be outsourced or automated by AI, pick up a toolbelt.
For Employers: Stop just trying to recruit your way out of the shortage. You need to fix your retention. Streamline your licensing support, protect your apprentices' hours, and build a culture that keeps your newly trained talent from walking out the door.
The jobs are there. The money is there. Now, the industry just needs to figure out how to keep the workers.