For years, politicians and influencers have sold a comforting myth: skip the degree, pick up a wrench, and you'll be making six figures before your friends finish their student loans. New data says that promise is mostly a lie.
The numbers don't lie, even if the pitch does.
A new analysis from higher-ed platform Niche, using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, found that just 9.4 percent of occupations with median pay of $100,000 or more don't require a bachelor's degree — and those jobs make up a mere 0.3 percent of the 13.8 million annual job openings available to workers without a four-year degree.
Yes, there are four times as many job openings that skip the degree requirement. But they pay a median of about $45,000 a year, compared to $96,000 for openings that want a bachelor's degree.
The trades aren't a scam — but the six-figure success stories are outliers, not the norm.
The economist behind the study put it bluntly: some trade jobs pay six figures right away, but that's the exception, not the rule. The jobs that actually clear $100K without a degree — commercial pilots, air traffic controllers, elevator installers, nuclear reactor operators — aren't blue-collar folk heroes. They're gated by federal certification and years of specialized training that most people never mention when they cite these careers as proof degrees are obsolete.
And the gap widens with age. Research cited in the piece shows the wage premium for a degree nearly doubles over a career — from roughly 27% at 25 to 60% by 55 — because degree-holders land in roles with more room to grow. Georgetown's Zack Mabel notes that non-degree workers hitting six figures are usually much older, with decades of accumulated skill behind them — not fresh out of a trade school.
"No degree required" job postings are mostly theater. More than 30 governors have pledged to drop degree requirements for public jobs, and federal agencies have made similar moves. But a 2025 Harvard Business School/Burning Glass Institute study found that fewer than 1 in 700 new hires actually benefited — credentialed applicants still get picked disproportionately, even when the requirement is technically gone.
The real path up isn't the trade itself — it's ownership. New America's Mary Alice McCarthy says tradespeople build lasting wealth when they start their own contracting businesses, not by staying employees. Without that leap, many are stuck in service-sector jobs that replaced the higher-paying manufacturing work lost since the 1970s decline of union power.
A high school diploma alone still won't get you to six figures. The no-degree jobs that do pay well demand serious post-secondary training — certificates, licenses, apprenticeships — not just grit and a toolbox. The "college is a scam, trades are the answer" narrative flattens a much messier truth.