Americans are abandoning the belief that grit and talent guarantee financial success. A profound “sea change” is underway, driven by stubborn inflation, stagnant wages, and an economy that increasingly feels rigged.
Here are the three harsh realities reshaping how Americans view upward mobility.
1. The Meritocracy Myth is Dead
For generations, the formula was simple: work hard, get ahead. No more. According to a six-year, 28,000-person survey by the FrameWorks Institute, **fewer than 4 in 10 Americans** now believe talent and effort are the primary keys to financial success.
In June, that number hit a record low of 35%. In stark contrast, **65% believe the real driver of success is simply having better opportunities.**
This collapse in the "meritocratic mindset" began in late 2022, creating a massive 30-percentage-point gap between those who still trust in hard work and those who point to systemic advantage. As FrameWorks’ Andrew Volmert notes, people haven’t stopped valuing hard work; they’re just no longer convinced it’s enough to survive the modern economy.
2. Inflation Ate the Paycheck
The timing of this disillusionment is no coincidence. It tracks perfectly with the affordability crisis that mounted in 2022 and has never truly let up.
As the cost of groceries, utilities, and essentials skyrocketed, the ultimate symbol of American success—homeownership—was pulled out of reach. Mortgage rates doubled from 3.22% to 6.42% in 2022, and today hover at 6.66%. A generation is now bracing to rent forever.
Meanwhile, the reward for hard work—paychecks—failed to keep pace. After briefly outpacing inflation in 2024 and 2025, wage growth has spent most of this year barely treading water or actively sinking behind rising prices, fueled by renewed Middle East tensions and higher energy costs. Hard work didn’t fail; the math did.
3. The Job Market is a Trap
The traditional escape hatch from stagnant wages is landing a new job. Today, that door is barely ajar.
Employers are locked in a "low-hire, low-fire" holding pattern, turning job searches into grueling, demoralizing marathons. The frustration is boiling over into outright resignation: in July, the labor-force participation rate plummeted to its lowest level since early 2021. People aren’t just unemployed; they are actively giving up the hunt.
Survey responses reflect this growing dread. As FrameWorks’ Clara Blustein Lindholm observes, economic criticism has merged with deep, daily uncertainty about what the future holds.
The political and economic fallout is inevitable. Affordability is dominating the conversation heading into the midterm elections, and for good reason.
As Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently warned, when the Fed misjudges the economy, the financial elite don’t feel the pain. Hard-working Americans do. They are the ones left to deal with inflation that runs too hot and jobs that grow increasingly insecure.
The old promise of "work hard, get ahead" isn’t just fraying. For most Americans, it’s officially bankrupt.