Small-business confidence is up, but labor worries linger

 


CoreWeave shares soared over 13% in extended trading Tuesday after the company reported quarterly revenue that surged 110%, driven by intensifying demand for artificial intelligence computing power. The company, whose customers include OpenAI and Meta, said its revenue backlog — a key indicator of future sales — stood at $104 billion at the end of the quarter. As Bloomberg notes, CoreWeave has become “a bellwether for the AI data center frenzy,” as tech giants spend billions of dollars to build infrastructure required to power the next generation of AI models.

Paramount Skydance chief David Ellison told senior staff he'll move the studio out of California unless the state resolves a lawsuit seeking to block its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, per unnamed sources cited by Puck and Variety. The relocation process would begin Oct. 1 — at which point Paramount will begin paying fees on the unclosed WBD deal — though the studio's prospective future home has not yet been determined. California Attorney General Rob Bonta called the plan an attempt to "blackmail the state into letting an illegal deal through."

Is AI hardware the new mortgage-backed security? 🏦💻

Nvidia and Wall Street are betting $500 Billion that it is—but critics are sounding the alarm. 

To keep the AI boom alive, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has teamed up with an elite roster of Wall Street heavyweights (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR) to build a massive new financing pipeline for AI chips. 

Here is what you need to know about this new "exotic" asset class:

**The Problem:** Big Tech (Meta, Microsoft, Google) has fortress balance sheets to buy AI chips in cash. But mid-tier AI labs and cloud companies are being crowded out of debt markets, facing interest rates of 9% or more. If they can't afford the hardware, the AI buildout stalls. 

**The Solution:** Wall Street wants to securitize AI compute. 

1️⃣ Investors (pension funds, insurers) inject billions into Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs).

2️⃣ SPVs buy Nvidia chips and lease them to AI companies.

3️⃣ Nvidia offers a "residual-value backstop" (guaranteeing up to 25% of the project value) to make the chips viable collateral.

**The Bull Case:** BlackRock CEO Larry Fink compares this to the birth of the mortgage-backed securities market in the 1970s. Because the demand for Nvidia chips vastly outpaces supply, proponents argue they hold their value and make excellent, highly liquid collateral. 

**The Bear Case:** Tech hardware depreciates notoriously fast. As one analyst put it, relying on compute power for collateral historically has "the shelf life of lettuce." If the AI boom stalls, or if Nvidia's next breakthrough makes current chips obsolete overnight, the collateral evaporates. 

Even Michael Burry (famous for shorting the 2008 housing market) weighed in, warning that structuring "unnatural credits to prolong momentum late in the bull phase" is where real systemic worry begins. 

With AI-related bond issuance already hitting $344B this year, the financialization of AI hardware is moving at lightning speed. 





Are we looking at a brilliant financial innovation that will democratize access to AI infrastructure? Or are we repeating the mistakes of the past by securitizing rapidly depreciating tech? 

Small-business confidence rose to its highest level in 11 months in July, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. The organization's Optimism Index rose 2.4 points from the prior month to 99.8, as business owners reported fewer worries about inflation. However, one issue remains a particular sore spot: labor supply. The percentage of businesses who reported having positions they could not fill rose to 36%, the highest since June 2025. A full 27% of small businesses identified labor quality or availability as their most pressing concern.


Small business owners became more optimistic in July as the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, moving above its 52-year average of 98.0 and reaching its highest level since August 2025. Eight of the index's ten components improved, with hiring plans providing the biggest lift.

The details were broadly positive. A seasonally adjusted net 20% of owners plan to create jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from June and the highest reading since October 2022. Capital spending plans improved as well, with 25% planning capital outlays over the next six months, the highest since December 2024. Inflation pressures also eased. The net share of owners raising prices fell 7 points to 31%, while the share planning increases fell 4 points to 28%. Inflation as the single most important business problem dropped from 21% to 14%.

There are still reasons for caution. Expected real sales fell 2 points to a net 7%, while the NFIB Uncertainty Index increased to 91, well above its historical average of 68. And while businesses want to hire, finding workers remains difficult. Thirty-six percent reported jobs they could not fill, the highest share since June 2025, and 27% named labor quality or availability as their single biggest problem. The hiring numbers also help explain something that can otherwise look contradictory. The economy can produce weak payroll growth at the same time businesses say they cannot find workers. An open job and someone looking for work aren't necessarily a match. Skills, experience, geography and wages all matter. July's NFIB report suggests that mismatch remains significant even as small businesses become more willing to hire.

Taken together, this is a good report. It also adds to the recent improvement we have seen in measures of consumer confidence and sentiment. Surveys aren't spending, hiring or investment, so better attitudes don't guarantee stronger economic activity. But direction matters. Consumers feeling somewhat better while small business owners become more willing to hire and invest is a healthier combination than either signal would be on its own.
Oracle is preparing another wave of layoffs as it trims payroll while borrowing heavily to expand data centers and buy chips for AI workloads, Business Insider reports, citing unnamed sources. Some teams may face double-digit staff reductions, following a 13% workforce cut at Oracle in its last fiscal year. The company’s infrastructure spending and rising debt are reshaping its model beyond database software. With its stock down almost 26% this year, Oracle plans to raise about another $40 billion in funds through stock and debt.
Home sales are up 2% year-to-date, but did decline in July after accounting for seasonal factors. Home prices marching higher and setting a new high for the month of July.

Please note that the median home price will be lower through autumn and winter months compared to peak summer home price. It happens every year partly from lengthening days-on-market in autumn and winter but more from the fact that smaller houses get sold in winter compared to summer. Families with school-aged children who need larger homes get their deal done in summer months.









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