Rather than triggering widespread layoffs, artificial intelligence is primarily putting downward pressure on paychecks. A white paper from Apollo Global Management (analyzing BLS data from 2022 to 2024 alongside Anthropic's Economic Index) reveals that high exposure to AI correlates directly with lower real wage growth—with the heaviest burden falling on lower-income workers.
Key Findings & Insights
Wage Suppression Over Job Loss: Overall employment levels in AI-exposed fields remained largely unchanged, but workers in the highest AI-exposure categories experienced an average 6.7% decline in real wage growth after 2023.
Income Inequality Widens:
Service Workers: Experienced a 24.3% decline in wage growth post-2023.
Bottom 25% of Earners: Saw a 10.7% decline in wage growth.
Top Earners: No statistically significant wage impact observed.
Scale of Impact: Roughly 5.8 million U.S. workers currently sit in roles with high AI exposure—a number expected to grow as corporate adoption expands.
Impact by Occupation (2022–2024)
| Job Title | Change to Real Wages | AI Exposure Score (Anthropic Index) |
| Computer Programmers | -6.1% | 0.75 |
| Statistical Assistants | -5.4% | 0.51 |
| Software QA Analysts & Testers | -2.9% | 0.52 |
| Database Architects | -2.7% | 0.58 |
| Medical Transcriptionists | -1.5% | 0.64 |
Nuance & Industry Outliers:
Market Deviations: Some occupations saw wage drops driven by broader industry shifts rather than AI alone (e.g., radio DJs/broadcast announcers dropped 52% despite low AI exposure).
Positive Exceptions: Roles requiring human judgment or specialized advisory grew in value despite moderate AI integration (e.g., Personal Finance Advisors +8.4%, Administrative Law Judges +17.5%).
Broader Economic Perspective
Automation Threshold: UPenn economist Ioana Marinescu notes that wage growth typically takes a hit once roughly 37% of cognitive tasks within a role become automated.
Historical Precedent: Goldman Sachs research indicates that historically, workers displaced by technological disruption face an average 3% immediate pay cut upon re-employment and experience 10 percentage points lower wage growth over the following decade.