According to the S&P, job cuts at U.S. factories ran near their highest levels since the end of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the Covid-19 pandemic.
At the same time, the big indexes are hovering around record levels, helped by strong reported earnings and a handful of mega caps tied to the AI buildout, pulling most of the weight. That gap between weak factory employment and high asset prices naturally feeds fears of a crash or a sharp correction, but it also feels like something more structural is changing and establishing shape. It is the anxiety of watching AI and automation chip away at old, supposedly stable industries while a long, grinding inflation cycle erodes real purchasing power and keeps sentiment depressed.
On the other side of that tension, AI infrastructure and software are where capital and actual demand seem most concentrated right now, with hyperscalers and platforms committing huge, multi‑year budgets and a small set of names carrying the index. So instead of a clean bubble or a clean slowdown, it looks more like a messy transition period where the market is trying to reprice toward a new set of winners while the real economy digests job losses, policy shocks, and a different labor and inflation regime.
🎰 Oh great, Zuck is at it again. 😂
Remember how Meta copied Snapchat to make Stories, TikTok to make Reels, and Twitter to make Threads? Well, now they’re reportedly setting their sights on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to a new report, Mark Zuckerberg has made a top-secret prediction app called "Arena" a major priority for the company. The plan? Use the massive user bases of Facebook and Instagram to finally catch up to the competition.
But wait, there’s a catch...
Instead of letting users bet real money on things like elections, pop culture, or the weather, Meta’s new app will reportedly use a video-game-style points system. Because nothing says "high-stakes thrill" like winning a digital badge or a sticker, right? 🙄
To be fair, Meta did try this exact same thing before with an app called "Forecast" back in 2020. It used points, nobody cared, and it shut down in 2022. Insiders say Meta hasn't ruled out adding real money eventually, but given Meta's track record, they'll probably launch it right before prediction markets get banned anyway. 🤷♂️
What do you think? Would you ever mess around with a Meta prediction market if you could only win "points"? Or does this sound like another flop? Let’s argue about it in the comments! 👇
Starbucks plans to hire thousands of additional full-time leadership roles inside its coffee shops this year. The company will start this month by hiring 300 "coffeehouse coaches, who will act as assistant store managers. More will be hired later this year.
Eventually, most of the chain's company-operated shops will get the roles. About 90% of these coaches are expected to be promoted from within.
Starbucks has 62 stores with these roles, and the company says that it led to improved customer experiences and more consistent performance. The roles also help the company develop new leaders while store leadership gets assistance and hourly workers, whom Starbucks calls partners, get better support.
This is part of the coffee shop giant's efforts to improve the operations of its stores to improve service. The company has added workers to its stores, improved the operations of its mobile app, and is remodeling stores across the country.
> Composite output accelerated but is still subdued, with the flash US Composite PMI Output Index rising from 51.5 in May to 52.2, a five-month high, marking the largest monthly gain since January.
> The current pace is consistent with the economy growing close to a 1% annualized rate in Q2 versus 1.6% in Q1.
> There remains a sharp manufacturing/services split. The Manufacturing Output Index hit 57.7 (a 59-month high), while the Manufacturing PMI reached 55.7 (its highest since May 2022). Services, by contrast, rose to just 51.3 (a four-month high), with growth described as only modest, weighed down by elevated prices, higher rates, and weak confidence.
> Also, manufacturing strength is partly related to war-related precautionary moves, with factories ramping up input buying and building inventories at the fastest pace since September 2021. This points to firms front-running anticipated supply disruptions and price hikes tied to the Middle East war, as stockpiling hit the fastest rate in nearly two decades outside of the 2025 tariff-announcement spike.
> Meanwhile, supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since August 2022 and are linked to shipping disruptions from the Middle East conflict plus tariffs.
> Employment tracked by this index declined for a second consecutive month (and the third time in four months). Manufacturing headcounts were cut at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 lockdowns of early 2020, with factory job losses even more pronounced. We'll get the full BLS jobs report for June on Thursday, July 2 to verify.
> Although input price inflation fell from May, it remained the third-highest reading since the start of 2023 (and partly aided by lower energy prices late in the survey window of June 11-22). Selling-price inflation held steady at May's pace (the highest since July 2025) with services prices charged rising to an 11-month high.
> Exports of both goods and services kept falling. We'll get the May update on trade in goods this Friday.
> Still, year-ahead output expectations rose to their brightest level since February in both manufacturing and services, helped by hopes that war-related disruptions will ease. At the same time, sentiment stayed well below long-run averages given lingering uncertainty over the war and tariff policy.
Note: The survey panels consist of around 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers. The "flash" reading is based on a subset with about 80-90% of respondents.
