1. The Numbers Don’t Lie
New data from an Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll survey reveals a stark trajectory:
- **Higher Costs:** The average cost of turnover has jumped to **$45,236**—up nearly $10,000 from $36,723 just one year ago.
- **Growing Expectations:** Half of U.S. hiring managers expect turnover to rise in 2026, a sharp increase from 39% in 2024 and 33% in 2023.
- **Bigger Firms, Bigger Risks:** Among companies with 500+ employees, 64% expect turnover to rise, suggesting that scale is now a liability rather than a stability advantage.
For a mid-sized company, these losses can quickly translate into millions in recruiting, onboarding, and lost productivity costs.
2. The Three Forces Driving Workers Out
Why are employees leaving in 2026? The survey points to three specific pressures with the largest year-over-year increases:
1. **Increased Workplace Demands (37%, up from 29%):** Workloads have become unsustainable. Perks and engagement surveys fail if employees are simply overworked.
2. **Expanding Job Opportunities (35%, up from 23%):** The labor market has shifted. Workers have real-time leverage and are constantly comparing compensation, flexibility, and growth against outside offers.
3. **Rising Career Switching (30%, up from 22%):** This is not job-hopping. Employees are questioning their entire career path due to AI disruption and evolving definitions of success.
3. The Salary Trap: Why Raises Won't Fix It
A dangerous perception gap is emerging:
- **Employers:** 75% expect wages to rise.
- **Employees:** Only 46% expect a raise; 40% expect pay to stay flat.
**Reality Check:** Even when raises happen, they are small. U.S. employers plan an average **3.5% salary increase** for 2026—barely a cost-of-living adjustment after inflation. This will not stop a high performer from leaving.
> **Key Insight:** Culture now matters more than compensation alone. As Bob Funk Jr. (CEO, Express Employment International) notes, “When employees feel supported... turnover naturally declines. Culture has become one of the most financially sound investments any organization can make.”
4. How Leaders Must Prepare for 2026
Leaders who treat retention as a "people issue" rather than a business risk will be unprepared for what comes next. The forces driving turnover (workload creep, career reinvention) are permanent, not temporary.
Action Steps:
- **Stop relying on annual engagement surveys.** Use **stay interviews** and regular manager check-ins to surface risks *before* a resignation lands on your desk.
- **Invest in internal mobility.** Employees who cannot see a future role will create one elsewhere.
- **Fix workload distribution.** Realistic capacity planning reduces burnout more effectively than a ping-pong table.
The Final Takeaway: The companies that win in 2026 will not be the ones offering the biggest raises. They will be the ones investing in flexibility, meaningful growth, and a culture employees don't want to leave—before turnover becomes an unaffordable emergency.