Stop avoiding small talk. It's making you lonelier than you think.
New research shows we're terrible at predicting how much we'll enjoy a casual conversation — and that blind spot is quietly fueling the loneliness epidemic.
You're waiting for coffee. A coworker lingers nearby. You glance at your phone instead. It's a familiar scene — and according to new research, one that's costing us more than we realise.
A study published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology finds that people consistently underestimate how interesting and enjoyable casual conversations will be — especially when the topic seems dull. That miscalculation, researchers say, is quietly feeding an epidemic of loneliness.
"Even boring topics can lead to surprisingly meaningful interactions." — Elizabeth Trinh, University of Michigan
Nine experiments, one clear pattern
Researchers at the University of Michigan, Cornell University, and INSEAD ran nine experiments with roughly 1,800 participants. People were asked to rate topics — sports, movies, AI, fitness, books — then assigned to five-minute conversations about either "boring" or "interesting" subjects. Afterward, they reported how much they enjoyed it, whether they found it interesting, and whether they'd want to talk again.
The result, replicated across all nine experiments: people are poor predictors of enjoyment when it comes to topics they consider boring. Intriguingly, the same bias didn't apply in reverse — conversations about topics rated interesting were accurately predicted.
One experiment added a telling twist: some participants had a live conversation, while others read a transcript or simply watched. The content was identical. Only the live participants found the experience better than expected.
"Actually engaging in a conversation — being part of it — is what drives the interest and enjoyment," said lead author Elizabeth Trinh, a doctoral student at Michigan's Ross School of Business. Listening, asking questions, making eye contact, feeling heard: these matter far more than whether the topic itself is inherently interesting.
The phone problem
An obvious culprit is standing between us and more of these moments. Gillian Sandstrom, associate professor in the psychology of kindness at the University of Sussex and author of Once Upon a Stranger, points to the pervasive pull of smartphones in public spaces.
When you're scrolling, you might miss the cues that the person next to you is open to a conversation. Worse, you might tell yourself that nothing a stranger says could be as interesting as whatever's on your screen — and the research suggests that assumption is simply wrong.
"If we don't practice talking to strangers and people we don't know well, how are we going to make friends?" Sandstrom asks. "How are we going to go on dates, or do well in a job interview?"
Why it matters beyond small talk
Social connection is one of the strongest predictors of both mental and physical health. Stav Atir, a behavioral scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who researches conversations with strangers, praised the study's design and emphasised that even brief exchanges with acquaintances and colleagues can meaningfully support our social well-being — not just close friendships.
The loneliness epidemic is real, and its solutions aren't always grand. Sometimes they're a two-minute exchange with a neighbour in the lift.
From Nadav Klein, co-author and associate professor at INSEAD:
Just start — don't overthink whether the topic is interesting enough.
Don't worry about being boring yourself.
Ask open-ended questions that invite storytelling.
Look for shared experiences, however small.
The next time you reach for your phone to fill an awkward silence, it might be worth pausing. The conversation you're avoiding could turn out to be the one you needed.