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President Donald Trump stood before Congress less than two weeks ago and declared, with characteristic confidence, that "the roaring economy is roaring like never before." The economic data released since then has told a decidedly different story.
Job losses, rising gas prices, and a stock market retreating from its highs have combined to paint a picture at odds with the golden age the president promised. That gap between prediction and reality — now sharpened by the U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran — could prove consequential as midterm elections approach and Republicans work to hold their majorities in both chambers.
The Jobs Picture Darkens
When January's jobs report landed showing gains of 130,000 positions, Trump celebrated on social media: "WOW! The Golden Age of America is upon us!!!" February's report hit like cold water. The economy shed 92,000 jobs last month — and revisions made things worse, with December swinging from a modest gain to a loss of 17,000.
Strip out health care, and the economy has shed roughly 202,000 jobs since Trump took office in January 2025. The administration points to construction hiring outside housing as a forward-looking bright spot, but the broader trend is difficult to spin away.
One of Trump's central promises was that cracking down on immigration would funnel jobs to American-born workers. That argument took a hit too: the unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers has climbed over the past year, rising from 4.4% to 4.7% — meaning more of the very workers Trump championed are now searching for work.
"The roaring economy is roaring like never before."
— President Donald Trump, State of the Union, February 2026What Iran Did to Gas Prices
Energy costs were supposed to be Trump's ace in the hole against inflation. "When you cut the cost of energy," he said in a Texas speech last month, "you just cut the cost of everything." He had been citing below-average pump prices as proof that his energy agenda was working.
Then the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28th.
In the weeks since, the national average gas price has jumped 19% to $3.45 a gallon, according to AAA. Goldman Sachs warned in an analyst note that if elevated oil prices persist, inflation could climb from its January reading of 2.4% to 3% by year's end — erasing one of the administration's most touted economic wins.
The White House is betting either that the conflict ends quickly or that the U.S. can keep oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, appearing on CNN's State of the Union, sought to reassure the public: "In the worst case, this is weeks — this is not a months thing."
Stocks Retreat from the Summit
Trump has repeatedly cited the Dow Jones Industrial Average's climb to 50,000 as a signature achievement. That talking point is aging poorly. The Dow has dropped roughly 5% over the past month, pulling back from those highs as war uncertainty and weak jobs data weighed on investor sentiment.
Stocks remain higher than when Trump took office — a fact he notes regularly — but the recent slide carries symbolic weight in an administration that has actively encouraged ordinary Americans to invest through programs like "Trump accounts" for children.
University of Michigan consumer surveys director Joanna Hsu noted that in February, rising confidence among stockholders "was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings" — a reminder that market gains don't translate evenly across the electorate.
Productivity Up, Pay Not Keeping Up
There is genuine good news buried in the data. Business sector labor productivity climbed 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a strong reading that reflects the underlying strength of America's technology sector. In theory, rising productivity is the foundation of long-term prosperity.
The catch: those gains aren't flowing to workers. Labor's share of national income fell to its lowest level on record last year, according to Mike Konczal, senior director at the Economic Security Project. Workers are producing more per hour but taking home a shrinking piece of the pie.
The Scorecard vs. Biden
Trump has made the contrast with his predecessor a cornerstone of his economic pitch, regularly describing the Biden years as plagued by "stagflation — low growth and high inflation." The numbers tell a more complicated story.
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annual pace during Biden's final year in office. Under Trump in 2025, growth was 2.2%. On inflation — measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index — both administrations recorded essentially the same reading: 2.6%.
Trump has avoided the inflation spikes that dogged Biden's presidency, and that matters. But the growth and hiring booms he promised have yet to materialize. The roar, for now, remains more rhetorical than real.