How America’s nursing shortage impacts health care. Demand for nurses expected to continue through 2038

Is Nursing Still a Smart Career Choice? What the Data Says in 2025

If you're weighing your career options in healthcare, nursing remains one of the most in-demand — and most consequential — paths you can choose. But the landscape is more nuanced than a simple "there's a shortage, go be a nurse." Here's what you actually need to know.

The Big Picture: A Shortage That Isn't Going Away

The U.S. nursing shortage is real, but it's unevenly distributed. Some regions are feeling a genuine crisis; others are managing. What's consistent across the board is that the pressure isn't letting up anytime soon.

The Health Resources and Services Administration projects an 8% shortage of registered nurses by 2028, easing slightly to 3% — roughly 109,000 nurses — by 2038. The American Association of Colleges of Nursing estimates approximately 193,000 RN job openings will need to be filled every year through 2032, once retirements and other exits are factored in. Advanced practice nurses — nurse practitioners, anesthetists, and midwives — are in similarly short supply, with over 29,000 annual openings projected.

Rural areas are hit hardest, with an 11% projected shortage compared to just 2% in metropolitan areas.

Why the shortage persists comes down to a few compounding factors:

• The average U.S. nurse is in their mid-50s, and 40% plan to leave the profession by decade's end
• Nursing school enrollment isn't keeping pace with demand — partly because there aren't enough faculty to teach
• Tens of thousands of qualified applicants are turned away from nursing programs each year due to capacity limits
• An aging U.S. population (growing from 58 million Americans over 65 today to 82 million by 2050) will drive significantly higher demand for care

What This Means for Your Career Prospects

The nursing shortage translates directly into job security and negotiating power — but the specifics vary depending on where you want to work and what kind of nursing you want to do.

Specialties like long-term care, palliative and hospice care, and rural health are experiencing the most acute shortages. If you're open to those paths, your prospects are excellent. Hospital nursing in major metro areas is more competitive, though still strong.

Wages have climbed meaningfully in recent years. In Salt Lake City, for example, the median RN salary sits around $80,000 — just 7% below the national median, up significantly from 2020 levels. In high-cost states and unionized markets, RN compensation is considerably higher.

Some employers are sweetening offers with student loan repayment tied to multi-year retention commitments — a model gaining traction as hospitals look for ways to reduce turnover. If you're choosing between job offers, it's worth asking about these programs directly.

The Honest Challenges

Nursing is a career "front-loaded with financial risk," as one healthcare entrepreneur put it at a recent industry event. Degree requirements have expanded, costs have risen, and the path from enrolled student to licensed, working nurse is longer than it once was.

Burnout is a serious issue. Chronic understaffing increases workload on existing nurses, which drives turnover, which worsens understaffing — a cycle that erodes both job satisfaction and patient safety. High turnover also undermines the team familiarity that experts say is central to safe patient care.

The licensure exam (NCLEX) is a critical hurdle after graduation. Failing it can create costly gaps between school and employment, though testing access has improved considerably in recent years.

What's Changing in Nursing Education

Nursing programs are evolving to expand access without sacrificing rigor. Simulation labs — where students practice complex clinical skills on high-tech mannequins in controlled environments — are now a standard part of training. Virtual clinical scenarios and hybrid program structures are helping schools reach more students.

"Simulation gives students a safe place to practice skills, make mistakes, and learn without risking patient harm," says Ann Butt, executive director of Simulation & Experiential Learning at the University of Utah. That experiential foundation means nurses enter real clinical settings having already handled high-pressure scenarios in lower-stakes conditions.

Nursing is not a field you enter casually — it demands rigorous training, emotional resilience, and a genuine commitment to patient care. But for those who are drawn to it, the career fundamentals are strong: consistent demand, expanding roles, improving compensation, and the kind of job security that few industries can match.

If you're considering it, the best time to start exploring programs and financial aid options is now. The pipeline is tightening, and the healthcare system is actively looking for the next generation of nurses.