Labor Market: Jobless claims continue to show stability
Initial claims came in at 212K for the week, which is 5K below the 217K forecast and 4K above last week’s upwardly revised 208K. The 4-week average rose slightly to 220K, up less than 1K from last week. The year-to-date average remains below the average weekly jobless claims for each of the last three years.
Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.833M, down 31K week-over-week and 27K lower than the forecast of 1.860M. Last week’s report was revised down by 5K to 1.864M. Despite this week’s drop in claims, the rolling 4-week average rose slightly to 1.848M after the January 29th reading of 1.819M fell out of the average. This remains stable territory for continuing jobless claims and is below the weekly average for all of 2025.
Next Friday we will get another update on non-farm payrolls and unemployment. Both reports for January were better than expected, and February may prove to be similar. ADP weekly employment reports have been relatively positive so far in 2026 and allude to overall improvement from Q4 2025.
Within the unemployment report, I’ll be looking closely at the change in long-term unemployment. The growing share of unemployed people who are staying unemployed for longer continues to undercut the low headline unemployment numbers. 25% of unemployed people have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more which is indicative of the punishing hiring environment.
💡In other news:
Mortgage rates are teasing us by crisscrossing the 6.0% threshold. Rates are more than 1% lower than this time last year, but the gap between outstanding mortgages and new mortgages remains wide. Until the gap between what most homeowners are paying and what they would be paying on a new loan closes, existing home sales will be stagnant.
Tomorrow’s big reports:
• PPI/Core PPI
• Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow
In his shareholder letter and a lengthy post on X, Dorsey said he chose to make the deep cuts all at once rather than over several rounds in the coming months and years in order to lessen the blow to employee morale.
He also predicted that other companies will reshape their workforces as "intelligence tools" improve.
“Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes,” Dorsey said. “I’d rather get there honestly and on our own terms than be forced into it reactively.”
AI anxiety is hitting junior consultants hard. If AI agents can crunch the data and build the decks, where does that leave the next generation?
According to two of EY’s top consulting leaders, Errol Gardner and Dan Diasio, the answer is: in a position to change the way things are done.
Traditional "assembly" work is being automated, but entry-level workers still have plenty to offer: creativity, native digital skills, and, crucially, a lack of experience.
There is an idea that they're going to be replaced by AI, said Diasio, but AI without context, knowledge, and expertise, puts you down a path of "statistical sameness" and produces "polished slop."
What professional services firms need are people who will challenge the status quo and rethink the way things are done, Gardner said. That means young workers have "more opportunity to change our organization" than before, he added.
Six months in as CEO, my conviction has only strengthened: WPP is an extraordinary company.
As our clients navigate uncertainty, AI disruption and macro‑volatility, our mission is clear — to be the trusted growth partner for the world’s leading brands in the era of AI.
Today, we’re unveiling a bold plan for a simpler, more integrated WPP. We’re becoming one company, organised into four operating units across four regions, all powered by WPP Open, our pioneering agentic marketing platform.
We’re tackling complexity head‑on, sharpening execution, and creating the capacity to return to organic growth and invest in the future. We have everything we need to win: exceptional talent, world‑class capabilities, trusted technology and partnerships, and global scale.
The momentum we’re seeing gives me real confidence that we’re building a WPP that’s fit for the future - and built to win.
As our clients navigate uncertainty, AI disruption and macro‑volatility, our mission is clear — to be the trusted growth partner for the world’s leading brands in the era of AI.
Today, we’re unveiling a bold plan for a simpler, more integrated WPP. We’re becoming one company, organised into four operating units across four regions, all powered by WPP Open, our pioneering agentic marketing platform.
We’re tackling complexity head‑on, sharpening execution, and creating the capacity to return to organic growth and invest in the future. We have everything we need to win: exceptional talent, world‑class capabilities, trusted technology and partnerships, and global scale.
The momentum we’re seeing gives me real confidence that we’re building a WPP that’s fit for the future - and built to win.
Nvidia may be the biggest company, but it's no longer the most important.
Hear me out: Nvidia's earnings were better than expected. Its forecast was better than expected. The shares are down, and tech more broadly is down.
But it's not because Nvidia itself was disappointing. It's because Nvidia earnings don't answer the most urgent question for the market right now: What is going to get disrupted, and when?
Hear me out: Nvidia's earnings were better than expected. Its forecast was better than expected. The shares are down, and tech more broadly is down.
But it's not because Nvidia itself was disappointing. It's because Nvidia earnings don't answer the most urgent question for the market right now: What is going to get disrupted, and when?
eBay is slashing 800 jobs just days after it bought Depop, a second-hand clothing app and rival to Etsy.
Here are a few things to know:
➡️ eBay tells us the layoffs are NOT related to AI
➡️ rather, they are "taking steps to reinvest across our business and align our structure with our strategic priorities"
➡️ this is at least the THIRD major layoff round for eBay since 2022
Companies across industries are tripping over themselves to slim down this year. Amazon, UPS, Target, Nike, Dow, and Pinterest are among them.
Are they being strategic or acting recklessly and in haste?
Here are a few things to know:
➡️ eBay tells us the layoffs are NOT related to AI
➡️ rather, they are "taking steps to reinvest across our business and align our structure with our strategic priorities"
➡️ this is at least the THIRD major layoff round for eBay since 2022
Companies across industries are tripping over themselves to slim down this year. Amazon, UPS, Target, Nike, Dow, and Pinterest are among them.
Are they being strategic or acting recklessly and in haste?