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U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week as layoffs remain at historically low levels.
The number of Americans filing for jobless aid for the week ending Feb. 14 fell by 23,000 to 206,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s significantly fewer than the 225,000 new applications that analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet had forecast.
Filings for unemployment benefits are viewed as representative of U.S. layoffs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the job market.
Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added a surprisingly strong 130,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. However, government revisions cut 2024-2025 U.S. payrolls by hundreds of thousands, reducing the number of jobs created last year to just 181,000. That’s about one-third of the previously reported 584,000, and the weakest since the pandemic year of 2020.
While weekly layoffs have remained in a historically low range, mostly between 200,000 and 250,000 for the past few years, several high-profile companies have announced job cuts recently, including UPS, Amazon, Dow, and the Washington Post in recent weeks.
Mounting layoff announcements in the past year, combined with the government’s own sluggish labor market reports, have left Americans increasingly pessimistic about the economy, even though it is registering solid growth.
The Labor Department also recently reported that job openings fell in December to the lowest level in more than five years.
Data over the past year has broadly revealed a labor market in which hiring has clearly slowed, hobbled by uncertainty stoked by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the lingering effects of the high interest rates the Fed engineered in 2022 and 2023 to tamp down a spike of pandemic-induced inflation.
Economists are conflicted about whether the stronger-than-expected January job gains are a one-off or possibly the first sign of a recovering labor market, which could lead the Fed to further delay more cuts to its key interest rate.
Some Fed officials have specifically argued that last year’s weak hiring shows that borrowing costs are weighing on growth and discouraging companies from expanding. A sustained pickup in hiring could undercut that theory.
The Labor Department’s report Thursday showed that the four-week moving average of jobless claims, which tempers some of the week-to-week volatility, decreased by 1,000 to 219,000.
The total number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the previous week ending Feb. 7 increased to 1.87 million, up 17,000 from the previous week, the government said.
The U.S. trade deficit slipped modestly in 2025, a year in which President Donald Trump upended global commerce by slapping double-digit tariffs on imports from most countries. But the gap in the trade of goods such as machinery and aircraft — the main focus of Trump’s protectionist policies — hit a record last year despite sweeping import taxes.
Overall, the gap between the goods and services the U.S. sells other countries and what it buys from them narrowed to just over $901 billion, from $904 billion in 2024, but it was still the third-highest on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
Exports rose 6% last year, and imports rose nearly 5%.
And the U.S. deficit in the trade of goods widened 2% to a record $1.24 trillion last year as American companies boosted imports of computer chips and other tech goods from Taiwan to support massive investments in artificial intelligence.
Amid continuing tensions with Beijing, the deficit in the goods trade with China plunged nearly 32% to $202 billion in 2025 on a sharp drop in both exports to and imports from the world’s second-biggest economy. But trade was diverted away from China. The goods gap with Taiwan doubled to $147 billion and shot up 44%, to $178 billion, with Vietnam.
Economist Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the widening gaps with Taiwan and Vietnam might put a “bullseye’’ on them this year if Trump focuses more on the lopsided trade numbers and less on the U.S. rivalry with China.
In 2025, U.S. goods imports from Mexico outpaced exports by nearly $197 billion, up from a 2024 gap of $172 billion. But the goods deficit with Canada shrank by 26% to $46 billion. The United States this year is negotiating a renewal of a pact Trump reached with those two countries in his first term.
The U.S. ran a bigger surplus in the trade of services such as banking and tourism last year — $339 billion, up from $312 billion in 2024.
The trade gap surged from January-March as U.S. companies tried to import foreign goods ahead of Trump’s taxes, then narrowed most of the rest of the year.
Trump’s tariffs are a tax paid by U.S. importers and often passed along to their customers as higher prices. But they haven’t had as much impact on inflation as economists originally expected. Trump argues that the tariffs will protect U.S. industries, bringing manufacturing back to America, and raise money for the U.S. Treasury.
Artificial intelligence could be stunting consultants' career growth, but not in the way you might think. Accenture has begun tracking senior staff's use of its AI tools for promotion discussions, as consultancies push reluctant employees to adopt the technology. The firm has told employees that regular AI use will be a "visible" factor in promotion talks this summer, and is now monitoring weekly log‑ins. The move highlights growing pressure on senior consultants to adapt, as junior employees show greater willingness to learn AI skills.
The grandson of the inventor of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups has criticized Hershey for tarnishing the brand's legacy by cutting corners and using cheaper ingredients in its flagship product. In an open letter posted on LinkedIn, Brad Reese accused the candy giant of misleading customers by "quietly replacing" milk chocolate with compound coating and peanut butter with peanut butter crème. Hershey acknowledged "recipe adjustments" on Wednesday, attributing them to consumer-driven innovation. Historically high cacao costs last year pushed some candy makers to alter recipes.
Walgreens is cutting over 600 jobs as its new private equity owner trims costs at the struggling pharmacy chain. The move affects 469 positions in Illinois, where it is headquartered, and another 159 in Texas tied to a distribution center closure. Private equity firm Sycamore Partners acquired Walgreens in August, after years of shrinking profits driven by online competition and lower insurance reimbursements for prescriptions. The firm has cut benefits, including paid holidays, while reintroducing products like electronic cigarettes to boost revenue.
Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos asserts the company's pending takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery's streaming business and studios is "better for theaters," despite raised flags from the Justice Department and Hollywood skeptics, including director James Cameron. According to Sarandos, Netflix's intellectual property combined with Warner Bros.' distribution channels will result in "high-quality" cinema content. Separately, anonymous sources tell Reuters that the streaming giant is prepared to raise its offer in light of WBD's reopened acquisition discussions with rival bidder Paramount Skydance
United Airlines is shaking up its MileagePlus frequent flyer program as carriers seek to reward their top-spending passengers. Starting in April, travelers who have the airline's credit card will get more miles and steeper discounts on United flights than customers without the card, the Chicago-based company announced Thursday. Customers without the card will earn less than they do currently. The change comes as United seeks an advantage in a competitive landscape for travel credit cards that includes American Express’ Platinum and Chase’s Sapphire Reserve cards.
The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate slipped this week to its lowest level in more than three years, but remains around 6% in the same narrow range it has been in this year.
The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 6.01% from 6.09% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.85%.
The modest pullback brings the average rate to its lowest level since Sept. 8, 2022, when it was 5.89%. That was the last time the average rate was below 6%.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.08% at midday Thursday, down from around 4.09% a week ago.
Mortgage rates have been trending lower for months, helping drive a pickup in home sales the last four months of 2025, but not enough to lift the housing market out of its slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes remained stuck last year at 30-year lows. And more buyer-friendly mortgage rates this year weren’t enough to lift home sales last month. They posted the biggest monthly drop in nearly four years and the slowest annualized sales pace in more than two years.
Meanwhile, new data on contract signings suggest home sales could remain sluggish in the near term.
A seasonally adjusted index of pending U.S. home sales fell 0.8% in January from the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Pending home sales fell 0.4% from January last year.
There’s usually a month or two lag between a contract signing and when the sale is finalized, which makes pending home sales a bellwether for future completed home sales.
“Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
A sharp run-up in home prices, especially in the early years of this decade, and a chronic shortage of homes nationally, worsened by years of below-average home construction, have left many aspiring homeowners priced out of the market.
That puts the focus on mortgage rates, which can boost home shoppers’ purchasing power when they come down, but also reduce how much homebuyers can afford when rates rise.
That makes the recent decline in rates a favorable lead in to the annual spring home-buying season — at least for home shoppers who can afford to buy at current rates.
“Lower rates should improve affordability and bring out more buyers,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “Assuming mortgage rates remain at about where they are, or come down even further, we should see more buyers this spring as both inventory and the weather improve.”
Homeowners eager to refinance their existing home loans to a more favorable rate are also benefiting from easing rates.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, edged lower this week. That average rate fell to 5.35% from 5.44% last week. A year ago, it was at 6.04%, Freddie Mac said.
Mortgage applications, which include loans to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage, rose 2.8% last week from a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications for mortgage refinance loans made up 57.4% of all applications.
The latest drop in mortgage rates comes three weeks after the Federal Reserve decided to pause cuts to its main interest rate after lowering rates three times in a row to close out 2025 in an attempt to shore up the job market.
Minutes released Wednesday from the Fed’s last meeting showed many officials want to see inflation fall further before they would support additional interest rate cuts this year.
The central bank doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its decisions to raise or lower its short-term rate are watched closely by bond investors and can ultimately affect the yield on 10-year Treasurys that influence mortgage rates.
In a sign of the times, Amazon has officially surpassed Walmart as the world's biggest company by annual sales. It's kind of a weird metric that isn't all that important to investors, but it underscores the incredible size and scale Amazon has achieved in the 30 years since founder Jeff Bezos started selling books online from his garage in the Seattle suburbs. Walmart had been the biggest company by revenue for more than a decade, and previous companies holding the title include ExxonMobil and General Motors. Amazon's ascendance is more a statement about the importance of cloud computing and data centers in the modern economy than it is about e-commerce. That's a fast-growing and profitable revenue source for Amazon, and it helped it steadily gain on Walmart over the past decade and finally surpass it. Amazon's 2025 revenue was $717 billion. Walmart, which operates on a fiscal year that ends Jan. 31, reported annual sales of $713 billion.
What do you take from Amazon hitting this milestone, and how long do you think it will be there? Any other companies or industries we should be watching to hit this size in terms of overall revenue inthe coming years?
OpenAI’s ability to raise $100 billion, as noted below, is a meaningful positive for the AI Capex SuperCycle continuing.
The OpenAI bucket ($ORCL, $CRWV, $MSFT, etc) could trade positively (on an alpha basis) into this financing announcement
and likely has a positive alpha curve out of the event, as retail continues to buy the positive headline
Retail is a big bucket for these names vs the fast money that likely locks in some alpha and moves on to the next alpha idea.
🛍️ When was the last time you went to, or ordered something from, Walmart?
➡️ Because yet again, Walmart beat across the board.
- The retailer reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.74 in the period, the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2026.
- Revenue increased 5.6% to $190.7 billion, basically in line with Wall Street's predictions of $190.6 billion.
- In its US business, quarterly same-store sales grew 4.6%, slightly higher than estimates of 4.3%.
📲 What drove that? Online sales: +27%.
❄️ (No judgement here if you boosted the quarter when you ordered more online when it was -10 degrees outside last month...guilty of higher online shopping during that period 🙋♀️)
➕ This was the first time reporting after its market cap recently eclipsed $1 trillion for the first time, under new CEO John Furner, and while listed at the Nasdaq. Plus, Amazon...on its heels.