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Robots could soon surpass humans in the global workforce, according to Rob Garlick, head of innovation at Citi Global Insights. Speaking on Squawk Box Europe, Garlick cited a December report projecting that physical AI robots—those performing tasks such as cleaning, driving, and deliveries across care, construction, hospitality, industrial, and retail sectors—could number 1.3 billion by 2035 and reach 4 billion by 2050.
The projection reflects accelerating advances in robotics capabilities and shrinking payback periods for companies investing in automation. Garlick suggested that within the next few decades, non-human workers could outnumber the human working population, shifting from less than 1% of the workforce today to a majority presence. As robotics technology scales, he argued, costs will continue to decline, making adoption increasingly attractive.
He added that the rise of digital AI agents—autonomous software systems capable of completing tasks on behalf of humans—will further amplify this shift.
A similar outlook was shared by Elon Musk during remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he predicted that robots could eventually outnumber people. Tesla has announced plans to phase out production of its Model S and Model X vehicles to prioritize commercial manufacturing of its humanoid robot, Optimus.
Garlick, author of the forthcoming book AI – Anarchy or Abundance? Why the Future of Work Needs Pro-Human Leaders, argues that leadership must actively address AI’s impact on employment. He pointed to the rapid deployment of AI agents at McKinsey & Company as evidence of real-time transformation. The firm, which employs roughly 40,000 people globally, reportedly expanded from 3,000 AI agents 18 months ago to around 20,000 today, with expectations of reaching workforce parity within three years. More recent reporting suggests the figure may now be closer to 25,000 agents.
Garlick contends that leaders must deliberately choose a “pro-human” approach, even when automation offers compelling short-term returns. He draws a parallel to the adoption of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) frameworks, where investor and consumer pressure pushed companies to address climate risk despite initial cost concerns. A similar tipping point, he suggests, could emerge around AI’s societal impact.
However, ESG itself has faced political headwinds in the United States, particularly under the Trump administration. While some initiatives continue at state and local levels, several major corporations have scaled back or quietly reduced public emphasis on ESG commitments amid increased scrutiny.