A few years ago, the playbook for boosting your salary was simple: change jobs. In tight labor markets—like the pandemic-era hiring frenzy—employers competed fiercely for talent, and workers who switched roles routinely landed significant pay jumps. "Job hopping" wasn't just a strategy; it was the most reliable shortcut to higher earnings.
That playbook is being rewritten.
New data from ADP suggests the job-hopping advantage is fading fast. In January 2026, year-over-year pay growth for workers who changed employers slowed to 6.4%, down from 6.6% in December. Meanwhile, employees who stayed in their roles continued to see steady 4.5% growth—a rate that has held consistent for much of the past year.
The result? The wage-growth gap between job switchers and stayers has narrowed to just 1.9 percentage points, the smallest difference since November 2020. For many workers, the financial incentive to jump ship is evaporating.
Where Moving Still Matters—and Where It Doesn't
The data reveals a sharply divided landscape. In sectors where specialized skills are scarce, hopping still carries a premium:
* **Construction, natural resources, and mining**: Job hoppers saw 6.6% pay growth versus 5.6% for stayers.
* **Financial activities and manufacturing**: Switchers gained roughly a 3% edge over those who remained.
But in other fields, the math has flipped:
* **Service roles**: Changing jobs yielded only a 0.6% advantage.
* **Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities**: The bump for movers was a marginal 1.6%.
Most strikingly, in **leisure and hospitality** and **information technology**, workers who stayed actually outearned those who left. Wage growth for job hoppers in these sectors lagged stayers by 2.5% and 0.6%, respectively—suggesting that loyalty, or at least stability, is now being rewarded.
The Bigger Picture: A "Slow-Hire, Slow-Fire" Labor Market
ADP's findings align with a broader economic narrative. Despite January's stronger-than-expected jobs report (130,000 roles added), many economists believe the "slow-hire, slow-fire" dynamic will persist.
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas recently outlined the headwinds: shifting demographics, tighter immigration policies, the end of pandemic-era labor hoarding, and a hiring pause as productivity improves. "In the near term, there is no reason that these factors will change," Brusuelas noted. He also highlighted a growing decoupling between GDP growth and hiring: "While GDP provides strong insight into production, construction, and investment, it does not always tell us how we live now. Slower job growth makes it more difficult to find a similar job at higher wages and adds to the very real affordability crisis that many households face."
Working Less, Living Differently
The ADP report, authored by Chief Economist Nela Richardson, also points to a structural shift in how Americans work. On average, employees are now working one hour less per week than before the pandemic. The typical workweek stands at 33.6 hours, down from 34.7 hours in January 2023.
Part of this reflects a rise in part-time employment. In 2025 and 2026, roughly 45% of U.S. workers logged fewer than 35 hours weekly—about 6 percentage points higher than in 2019.
Demographics are playing a key role. The median age of the U.S. workforce has risen from 40.5 in 2004 to 41.7 in 2024. Looking ahead, the Population Reference Bureau projects the number of Americans aged 65+ will surge from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050. As this cohort redefines retirement—often staying in the workforce longer but with reduced hours—the labor market will continue to adapt.
The Takeaway for Workers
The era of automatic rewards for job hopping appears to be over. In 2026, the smartest career move isn't always the next one. For many, investing in growth within a current role, targeting industries with persistent skill shortages, or prioritizing work-life balance over marginal pay gains may yield better long-term returns. As the labor market matures, the definition of "getting ahead" is becoming more nuanced—and for the first time in years, staying put might be the most strategic leap of all.