For much of the past ten years, discussions around U.S. manufacturing have centered on one key metric: job gains or losses. However, this focus is misguided.
As we approach 2026, the narrative around the manufacturing workforce is shifting from quantity to quality—the nature of jobs being created, the skills they demand, and whether our workforce development systems can support workers in transitioning to these new roles.
Manufacturing employment is expected to remain relatively stable next year, with minimal growth at best. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a slowdown in manufacturing job growth compared to the post-pandemic recovery. Yet, beneath these headline figures, a significant transformation is taking place.
Jobs Are Evolving Faster Than Workforce Systems Can Keep Up
Investments in reshoring, clean energy, data centers, and advanced manufacturing are surging to unprecedented levels. According to the Reshoring Initiative, 2024 marked the second-highest year for job announcements related to reshoring and foreign direct investment. Many of these initiatives are multi-year projects, ensuring their impact on employment will extend well into 2027 and beyond.
However, these aren't the traditional factory jobs of the past.
The growth is primarily in high-skill positions such as maintenance technicians, CNC programmers, automation specialists, quality engineers, and advanced operators, while demand for lower-skill, manual roles continues to decline. Deloitte predicts that if current trends continue, the manufacturing skills gap could result in up to 2.1 million unfilled jobs by 2030.
The primary risk in 2026 isn't the disappearance of manufacturing but our failure to assist workers in transitioning to the roles that manufacturing needs.
Infrastructure as a Critical Constraint
When manufacturers discuss risks, policy uncertainty often ranks high. Surveys from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) reveal increasing concerns about trade and regulatory instability. However, from my perspective, the more pressing threat is infrastructure—digital, technological, and human.
Many manufacturers continue to operate with outdated systems while attempting to integrate automation, AI, and advanced equipment. Cybersecurity threats are on the rise, energy access is inconsistent, and talent shortages persist not due to a lack of interest but because our systems hinder skill development while individuals earn a living.
Talent is a form of infrastructure, and currently, that infrastructure is inadequate.
Ensuring Manufacturing Remains a Middle-Class Engine
Manufacturing remains a vital source of middle-class jobs in America. According to NAM, the average manufacturing worker earns over $100,000 annually in wages and benefits combined, with most roles not requiring a four-year degree.
Yet, this promise is at risk.
Without significant upskilling initiatives, we face the danger of creating a barbell workforce: a small group of highly paid, skilled workers on one end and a larger group of underemployed workers in low-wage roles on the other.
The solution isn't to debate whether manufacturing can provide good jobs but to ensure more people can access them.
Apprenticeships Alone Aren't Enough
Apprenticeships can be transformative for individuals who participate and complete them. However, as a national strategy, they have limitations.
Consider Indiana: even with 25,000 active apprentices and a completion rate of about one-third, only a fraction of people are moved into skilled roles annually, while manufacturers face over 80,000 open positions each year. The gap is substantial. Apprenticeships offer a high-quality, low-volume solution to a high-volume problem.
To achieve meaningful scale, we need broader earn-and-learn models that incorporate the best aspects of apprenticeships while reducing complexity. These programs should align with employer needs, pay individuals while they develop skills, focus on stackable credentials, and quickly move workers to proven competency without requiring them to forgo income. These models complement apprenticeships, offering a faster, more flexible, and scalable approach to talent development in our current economic reality.
Manufacturers Set to Thrive in 2026
The manufacturers that will succeed in 2026 won't be those with the most job postings but those that redefine how frontline work is perceived, experienced, and communicated.
This transformation begins with reimagining the work itself. Frontline manufacturing roles must be portrayed as purpose-driven and high-tech, reflecting their current reality. Operating a press isn't merely a task; it produces components essential for hospitals, transportation, and clean energy. These jobs are surrounded by robots, cobots, CNC machines, digital instructions, augmented reality training, and real-time quality data. By showcasing both the tools and the mission, manufacturing can shed its outdated image and be recognized as advanced, technical, and vital.
The second shift involves treating storytelling and visibility as integral to talent strategy, not just marketing. Workers need concrete evidence, not abstract promises. Highlight real people, wages, and career timelines. Make career progression transparent so that high school students and career changers can grasp it quickly. When individuals see others like them advance from entry-level positions to leadership roles, manufacturing careers become attainable rather than theoretical.
Finally, the most competitive manufacturers will take the initiative in skill development instead of waiting for the system to provide ready-made talent. This means bringing training in-house, paying people to learn, collaborating with community colleges and credential providers on-site, and linking advancement directly to skill acquisition. Skill development becomes essential infrastructure, not just an added benefit.
In essence, stop merely advertising job openings. Start promoting missions and tools. More jobs alone won't shape the future of manufacturing; it requires improved systems that help people grow into the roles manufacturing truly needs.