It's been almost three years since ChatGPT aced the bar exam, sparking fears that AI would wipe out lawyers. The legal profession hasn't crumbled yet—but Gen Z is piling into law school anyway, dodging a brutal entry-level job market.
Just like during the 2008 crash and 2020 pandemic, law school applications have surged over 40% in the past two years, per ABA data from the Law School Admission Council (LSAC). Back in 2011, amid a glut of applicants, law professor Paul Campos exposed the "law school scam" in his anonymous blog and book Don't Go to Law School (Unless). History might be repeating.
Strong Job Stats, But Cracks Are Showing
Recent numbers look solid: Over 80% of 2023-2024 grads landed credential-required jobs within a year, and the National Association for Law Placement reported a record 93% employment rate in 2024, per The New York Times. But admissions experts like Mike Spivey, CEO of Spivey Consulting Group, warn of a pendulum swing.
"We've had a good run, so it's time for oversaturation," Spivey told Fortune. Law firms get pickier with too many grads, slowing hires and salary bumps—especially in a "low-hire, low-fire" economy where Gen Z unemployment is double the national average.
AI and Recession: The One-Two Punch
Picture this: Record enrollments meet a hiring slowdown. "More students, fewer firm hires—that's dangerous," Spivey says. Add AI automation, and it's worse. Jen Leonard of Creative Lawyers predicts recessions could erase junior roles permanently, as firms lean on AI for grunt work instead of rehiring post-downturn.
LSAC data shows LSAT takers jumped 15% after the 2008—recessions drive law school booms. Today, even without a full recession, recent college grads face unemployment above the national rate for the first time, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Spivey attributes 90% of the surge to a "hiring recession," not just rule-of-law worries.
Firms Dip Toes in AI—Hiring Holds (For Now)
Law firms are testing AI cautiously. A&O Shearman and Macfarlanes use Harvey AI; DLA Piper and others deploy Thomson Reuters’s CoCounsel. Startup Eudia aims to ditch billable hours entirely. But risk-averse firms dip in a "pinky toe," pulling back on AI horror stories—though Spivey says they'll dive deeper soon.
Gen Z betting on law school might thrive short-term, but AI and market shifts could turn it into a risky refuge. What's your take on law as a recession-proof path?