It’s no secret that the job market is currently a gauntlet. Between the rise of "ghost jobs" (postings that aren't actually hiring), the integration of AI into the workforce, and a hiring cycle that feels stuck in molasses, job seekers are being pushed to the brink.
Recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York paints a sobering picture: professional confidence has hit a record low. As of December 2025, the average person believes they have only a 43.1% chance of finding a new role if they were laid off today—the lowest level of optimism since tracking began in 2013.
Who Is Feeling the Squeeze?
While anxiety is widespread, the "vibecession" in the labor market isn't hitting everyone equally. The data highlights three groups currently facing the steepest uphill battle:
Lower Earners: Those making under six figures.
Non-Degree Holders: Professionals without a college diploma.
Baby Boomers: Workers over age 60 who are nearing retirement.
The "Stuck" Professional
Even those who currently have a steady paycheck aren't breathing easy. The perceived risk of being laid off in the next year has climbed to 15.2%.
This fear has created a "stay put" mentality. Because the odds of finding a better role are so low, workers are less likely to quit voluntarily, leading to a stagnant market where internal promotions and raises are harder to come by. As Glassdoor economist Daniel Zhao puts it, workers feel "stuck"—losing the leverage they once had to negotiate for better terms.
The Ageism Gap: A Crisis for Older Workers
Perhaps the most startling takeaway from the recent reports is the plight of the 60+ workforce. Their perceived probability of landing a new job sits at a meager 33%—nearly 10% lower than the national average.
The culprit? It’s rarely a lack of skill or AI taking their jobs. Instead, it’s a cocktail of ageism and retirement assumptions.
| The Reality for Workers Aged 55-64 | The Numbers |
| Re-employment Failure | 24% of those laid off never find another job. |
| Duration of Unemployment | Average of 26 weeks (vs. 19 weeks for younger workers). |
| Pay Disparity | 49% say they earn less than their younger peers for the same work. |
| Career Stagnation | 22% report being skipped for "challenging" assignments. |