As we celebrate the holidays in late December 2025, many of us are facing that classic family question around the dinner table: "So, how's the job search going?" If you're struggling to find a new role—or even feeling stuck in your current one—a recent Business Insider analysis perfectly captures why 2025 has been such a chilly year for the US labor market.
Drawing from the latest data (through November 2025), here are six key trends that paint a picture of a "frozen" job market, where employers are holding back on hiring amid economic uncertainty, AI disruptions, and shifting power dynamics.
1. Job Openings Are Drying Up Relative to Job Seekers
Remember 2022, when there were *two* job openings for every unemployed person? Those days are gone. By September 2025, that ratio had fallen to about one-to-one, and in July and August, unemployed workers actually outnumbered available openings—something we hadn't seen since the height of the pandemic. Overall, job openings have cooled by 37% from their 2022 peak.
This shift means the balance of power has swung back to employers, making it harder for job seekers to land interviews, let alone offers.
2. Workers Are Staying Put — Welcome to the "Big Stay"
The quits rate hit a low of just 1.8% in October 2025—the lowest since May 2020. During the Great Resignation, people jumped ship for better pay and opportunities. Now, with fewer options on the table, most are choosing stability over risk.
As ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud put it, strong inflation and cooling wage growth have made workers prioritize a steady paycheck, even if the job isn't ideal.
3. The Pay Premium for Switching Jobs Has Vanished
One of the biggest perks of changing jobs used to be a significant salary bump. In 2025, that premium has largely evaporated. Wage growth for job-switchers has slowed dramatically and now tracks closely with (or even falls below) those who stay put. The hot labor market that rewarded mobility is officially over.
4. Long-Term Unemployment Is Rising
A quarter of unemployed Americans have now been out of work for 27 weeks or more—a share that's climbed sharply in the second half of 2025. This trend highlights how difficult it's become for laid-off workers to get back into the workforce quickly.
5. Young Adults Are Hit Especially Hard
Unemployment for 20- to 24-year-olds spiked to 9.2% in August and September 2025—the highest since the early pandemic days. Even college graduates in this age group are facing rates consistently above the national average, with the gap widening throughout the year.
Factors like AI automation, federal workforce cuts, and slower growth in traditional entry-level sectors have made the transition from school to career tougher than ever.
6. Worker Confidence Is at Rock Bottom
According to the New York Fed's survey, the perceived chance of finding a new job within three months if laid off today hit its lowest level ever in August 2025 (since tracking began in 2013). While there's been a slight rebound, sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.
Looking Ahead
Job growth has been sluggish all year, and as Bachaud notes, recent upticks in openings haven't yet translated into actual hires. With ongoing uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and policy changes, 2025 is closing out on a cautious note for workers.
If you're job hunting—or know someone who is—know that it's not just you. The data shows a broadly challenging landscape. Hang in there, keep networking, and maybe bookmark these trends for the next family gathering. Here's hoping 2026 brings some thaw to the job market!