Shoppers hit Black Friday sales with celebratory mood despite economic strain
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The economic picture hasn’t looked very rosy: Hiring has been sluggish. Consumers have been dealing with soaring meat prices. Layoffs are rippling through companies.
But despite those concerns, shoppers hit the stores in full strength on Black Friday, with some even sipping champagne as they searched for discounts on the day that traditionally kicks off the holiday shopping season.
Just outside New Orleans, shoppers flooded Lakeside Shopping Center to see what deals they could find. The mall offers champagne to Black Friday traditionalists while they shop, as long as they have a receipt of at least $50.
“Sipping and shopping is the best, so I feel like that’s a New Orleans thing to do” said Lacie Lemoine, who was shopping with her grandmother, an annual tradition they’ve kept despite the fact that their budgets are shrinking.
“The economy is bad, but you still have to celebrate,” said her grandmother, Sandra Lemoine. “Everybody has to do what they can do on their own budget. That’s it.”
Both the massive Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, and Westfield Garden State Plaza in Paramus, New Jersey, reported strong customer traffic on Friday and said Black Friday would once again rank as their busiest day of the year.
“We are off to a great start,” said Jill Renslow, Mall of America’s chief business development and marketing officer.
The line to enter the shopping and entertainment center started forming at 3 p.m. on Thursday, Renslow said. About 14,000 visitors entered within an hour of the mall’s 7 a.m. opening, she said.
“We are tracking one of our best Black Fridays ever,” she added.
Many retail executives have reported customers becoming more discerning and increasingly focused on deals while at the same time remaining willing to splurge for important occasions, creating a potential halo effect that might keep financial worries from discouraging holiday shoppers.
National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay said in early November that consumers tend to wall off holidays, whether religious, secular, or bank, from outside concerns.
“It’s a sort of category of spending that has a moat around it,” Shay said. “Shoppers view them as opportunities for celebration. I think that really captures the way the (winter) holiday season goes. People save for it. They plan for it. They prioritize it.”
While some are being cautious about this year’s Christmas expenses, others are not. Metairie, Louisiana resident Denise Thevenot says this year is no different. “I wish I could say that I had, but no, we’re just blowing it away just like we do every year. We’ll worry about that tomorrow, right? I got the receipts to show you.”
Marshal Cohen, chief industry adviser at Circana, a market research firm, visited several malls on New York’s Long Island and New Jersey. He noted strong traffic and said the centers grew busier as Black Friday went on.
Cohen said Target drew lines for complimentary gift bags for the early shoppers, but overall, “gone is Black Friday as we know it,” he said. “There’s no sense of urgency.”
According to Target, which aims to reverse a sales slump, 150 shoppers on average were in line at its stores for the bags filled with what it described as “goodies.” The discounter was giving away the bags for the first 100 customers who showed up for its 6 a.m. opening.
At Macy’s Herald Square flagship store in New York City, customers who streamed in soon after the store opened at 6 a.m. found deep discounts on clothes, shoes, linens, and cosmetics. The footwear department discounted everything up to half off.
Nicholas Menasche, 19, from Queens, New York, shopped with his mother for shoes and clothing, and planned to head next to Best Buy for video games. Menasche, an intern at a bank, said he expected to spend around $1,200 this year on his holiday shopping, roughly the same amount as last year.
“It’s a great tradition,” he said. “The stores are open really early.”
Westfield Garden State Plaza let customers in an hour early instead of making customers wait outside in the frigid weather, but stores didn’t open their doors until 7 a.m. as planned, said marketing director William Lewis. Members of Generation Z mostly comprised the early crowd, but older customers came in later, he said.
“People are definitely buying,” Lewis said. “Most people are walking around with a shopping bag.”
Shoppers appeared to have done research ahead of time and “know exactly where they are going,” he said.
Although Black Friday still reigns supreme as a magnet for in-store shopping, the ease of browsing and buying gifts online has eroded the event’s singular significance. Online purchases now account for more than 30% of total holiday sales compared to 15% in 2012, according to the National Retail Federation.
The growth in online sales has also been robust so far. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, U.S. consumers spent $79.7 billion, or 7.5% more than a year earlier, according to web tracking and analysis platform Adobe Analytics. They spent another $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving Day, a 5.3% increase over last year, while taking advantage of better-than-expected deals, the firm said.
“Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer said ahead of Black Friday. Consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”
Retailers in the U.S. are gearing up for Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, which kicks off the holiday shopping season that typically accounts for a third of U.S. retailers' annual profits.
In the early 1960s, police officers in Philadelphia described the chaos that resulted from a large number of suburban tourists coming into the city to begin their holiday shopping as "Black Friday".
The phrase did not describe a positive boost in retail sales until the late 1980s, when merchants spread the narrative of being "in the red" until the day after Thanksgiving, when massive sales allowed them to turn a profit, or put them "in the black".
The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects 186.9 million Americans to shop in the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, which would be a record, surpassing last year's 183.4 million.
Sales for November and December together are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, but sales growth is expected to slow to a range of 3.7% to 4.2%, lower than last year's 4.8% increase.
Consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average, NRF said.
The slower sales growth mirrors the sentiment from muted holiday shopping forecasts from other major data firms.
Adobe Analytics said in October that discounts in online retail platforms would likely reach up to 28%, similar to last year, though shoppers will trade up to higher-value items with the best discounts.
Retailers have rolled out early promotions. Walmart's (WMT.N), opens new tab began on November 14 and will run in three phases through December 1, with Walmart+ members getting early access.
Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab started its Black Friday deals week on November 20, similar to last year, and Macy's (M.N), opens new tab opened a dedicated "early access" portal on November 10. Kohl's (KSS.N), opens new tab started its sales on November 7, while Target (TGT.N), opens new tab started promoting deals on its website on November 23.
Walmart's featured deals include an 85-inch TCL Roku TV, originally priced at $678, marked down to $498 for Black Friday, according to a Reuters review of the retailer's website. This year's lineup also features a Blackstone outdoor grill offered at $157, down from its $225 list price.
Best Buy has deals on a 65-inch Samsung TV marked down 50% to $1,000 for Black Friday, and Lenovo Yoga and HP laptops priced originally at $1,050 and $820, respectively, marked down to $630 and $430.
Ulta Beauty is offering discounts on popular makeup, body, skin, and hair care brands such as Sol de Janeiro, Olaplex, Tarte, MAC, and Estee Lauder.
Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab is offering a gift card up to $250 on select products during the Cyber Weekend. Amazon is offering Apple's MacBook Air models on Black Friday with discounts of at least 21%, according to the retailer's website.
As investors monitor crowd sizes at stores on Black Friday, they will be shopping for a different kind of holiday deal: retailers that do well in a mixed economy characterized by high prices and limited shopping budgets.
Walmart is up about 21% year-to-date, while Ralph Lauren is up around 61% and Tapestry is up about 70%.
Investors and analysts still watch store traffic for clues on consumer sentiment and preferences even though an increasing number of shoppers opt to order online from the couch, which has boosted Amazon.com (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Walmart hugely in recent years.
Amid persistent inflation and a slowing labor market, investors expect cautious spending from low- and middle-income households, while well-off consumers who have benefited from 2025's stock market gains will pick up some of the spending slack.
"Whenever you have a bifurcated economy where some people are doing really well and others are not but everybody wants to spend, that just raises the stakes for all the retailers," said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners.
She saw "stressed" shoppers before Thanksgiving at Walmart, which was "bending their pricing to allow people to buy what they need" with a 10- and 5-pound potato sacks and a variety of turkey sizes.
Forrest said Walmart's "eye-catching displays," like a set Thanksgiving table marketing home goods or a decorated crib in the baby section, compared favorably to Target (TGT.N), opens new tab. While, in the past, Target store displays convinced shoppers to buy unplanned items, Forrest said they have "lost their merchandising mojo."
Last week, Walmart increased annual forecasts for the second time this year. Target reported a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly same-store sales as consumers pulled back spending on apparel and home decor.
"If you're careful with your money, you're going to want the most bang for your buck. You're going to go to the store where you think you could get that. You're not going to go to a humdrum kind of shopping experience," said Forrest.
She expects stronger sales for TJX - owner of TJMaxx and HomeGoods - than at Macy's and Kohl's. Kohl's shares rallied 42.5% on Tuesday when it projected a smaller drop in sales and bigger profit for the year ahead. However, the company has reported same-store sales declines in the last 11 quarters.
LOW VALUATIONS FOR SOME RETAILERS
David Swartz, senior analyst covering retailers at Morningstar, said investors have shown a preference in recent years for Ross Stores and TJX over Macy's and Kohl's, which have been "hit hard by competition from the clearance off-price stores as well as Amazon and Walmart."
And going more upmarket, Swartz sees Ralph Lauren, Ulta Beauty (ULTA.O), opens new tab, and Tapestry doing well this season, but warned that increasing their already-rich valuations could be risky.
In contrast, Nike (NKE.N), opens new tab and LuLulemon Athletica (LULU.O), opens new tab have underperformed in recent years. While "they may not necessarily report great holiday periods," Swartz points to low valuations, so "if things do get better, you could see the stocks go up quite a lot."
He noted that some retailers kick off sales as early as October and some deepen discounts closer to Christmas or in the New Year, while some consumers buy all their gifts online.
"You can't judge the whole season's sales just based on one day," said Swartz.
Bokeh's Forrest sees VF Corp (VFC.N), opens new tab, whose shares are down about 19% year-to-date, as a potential turnaround story, while Urban Outfitters' (URBN.O), opens new tab namesake stores have not been doing as well as its Anthropologie chain.
With many consumers under pressure, Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat, will watch spending levels among higher-income shoppers.
"If their spending falters, then we would have some trouble in the economy, she said.
The Starbucks workers' union said on Friday it has expanded its indefinite strike demanding better pay and staffing to more than 120 stores from 65, while the coffee chain said the strike has had no major impact on its operations.
The walkout, set to be the longest strike in the history of Starbucks (SBUX.O), opens new tab, began on Red Cup Day on November 13 at 65 stores in more than 40 cities. The escalation comes on Black Friday, the busiest time of the year for retailers.
Starbucks, however, said 99% of its U.S. locations are open, and only 55 of the more than 17,000 coffeehouses were closed due to the strike on Black Friday.
"Regardless of the union's plans, we do not anticipate any meaningful disruption," a company spokesperson said, adding that it was staffing with members on store rosters. The union said that it was striking at 120 locations.
Striking baristas are demanding higher wages, improved working hours, and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges for union busting.
Contract talks remain stalled despite mediation efforts in February, with both sides trading blame after delegates rejected Starbucks' proposed package in April that guaranteed annual raises of at least 2%.
"The law allows management to hire replacements in this kind of strike, so the workers just don't have a lot of leverage," Harry Katz, a professor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, said.
A long-term strike will likely impact public relations, but "in light of market volatility caused by tariffs and other factors, Starbucks would want to make this a short-term affair", said Michael Duff, a professor at the Saint Louis University School of Law.
Unionized workers also went on strike at Amazon warehouses in Germany on Black Friday, aiming to disrupt operations on a key sales day as they push for a collective bargaining agreement, with separate protests also planned outside Zara stores in Spain.
Starbucks Workers United, which represents 11,000 baristas and about 550 stores, has repeatedly targeted the company's busy holiday season and Red Cup Day, when Starbucks hands out reusable red holiday-themed cups to customers for free on coffee purchases.
U.S. shoppers spent $8.6 billion online on Black Friday, an Adobe Analytics report showed, as more consumers turned to laptops and phones instead of braving brisk weather to snap up deals during the holiday shopping weekend.
Online spending rose 9.4% through 6:30 p.m. ET (1130 GMT) on Black Friday compared with last year, according to Adobe Inc.'s data and insights arm, which vets e-commerce transactions, covering more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites.
Consumers were expected to flock to stores, but the bargain-chasing was subdued on post-Thanksgiving morning as shoppers feared overspending amid persistent inflation, trade policy-driven uncertainty, and a soft labor market.
However, the data firm expects consumers will spend between $11.7 billion and $11.9 billion on Friday, following a final tally, and said it will set a new record for online sales on Black Friday.
It anticipates consumers will spend $5.5 billion on Saturday, which represents a growth of 3.8% from last year, and $5.9 billion on Sunday, a rise of 5.4%, as discounts remain elevated.
Cyber Monday is expected to be the season's biggest online shopping day again, according to Adobe projections, driving $14.2 billion in spending, up 6.3% from last year.
Adobe, which earlier forecast Black Friday online sales rising 8.3% to $11.7 billion, last month said it expects U.S holiday online sales to grow at a slower pace this year.
