As artificial intelligence transforms the modern workplace, many fear widespread job losses and the disappearance of entry-level roles. But a new report suggests there’s a better path forward: reskilling and upskilling current employees for the jobs of the future.
The Talent Resilience Index (TRI) — released by labor market analytics firm Lightcast and Guild, which connects companies with education and retraining programs — argues that training existing workers isn’t just a defensive move. It’s a strategy to help businesses remain competitive and capture trillions in untapped revenue.
“More than $280 billion has already been committed to semiconductor manufacturing, with hundreds of billions more flowing into infrastructure, supply chains, clean energy, AI, and advanced nuclear,” said Guild CEO Bijal Shah. “These are once-in-a-generation investments, but their success depends on whether the workforce can keep up.”
The Economic Case for Reskilling
Guild’s research shows that reskilling can unlock $8.5 trillion in additional revenue by 2030. Companies that rely solely on external hires pay an average 28% salary premium to attract new talent — a costly approach compared to retraining their existing workforce.
Reskilled employees typically earn 15% more annually, while companies benefit from lower hiring costs and higher productivity. In fact, organizations that fill 60% or more of roles internally achieve four times higher sales per employee than those that don’t.
Retention also improves dramatically: internally promoted employees stay 60–65% longer than external hires.
A Hidden Engine of Growth
The TRI describes workforce mobility as “an economy within an economy” — a driver of bottom-up growth that adds enormous value. Between 2016 and 2024, mobility generated an average of $221 billion in annual earnings, equivalent to 1% of U.S. GDP, peaking at $255 billion in 2023.
Countries like Singapore, India, and Saudi Arabia are already investing heavily in national upskilling programs. Yet in the U.S., workforce mobility has fallen to its lowest level since 2016, constrained by a shrinking labor pool, economic uncertainty, and surging demand for AI-related skills. In some fields, up to 75% of core job skills have changed within just three years.
Building U.S. Workforce Resilience
To reverse this decline, Shah calls for a public–private partnership approach:
“Businesses must lead in building mobility systems while government clears the roadblocks. That means aligning education incentives, expanding credential portability, and treating workforce development as critical infrastructure.”
Guild’s report urges companies to reimagine their HR strategies — emphasizing internal mobility, continual upskilling, and resilience as key hiring and performance metrics.
Why Building Beats Buying
AI literacy is one area where reskilling pays off fast. Roles requiring AI expertise currently command salaries 28% higher, or roughly an $18,000 premium. Rather than paying inflated wages for scarce external hires, companies can build AI-ready talent internally — a strategy that “favors math and long-term resilience,” according to the TRI.
Real-World Success Stories
OSF HealthCare transformed its workforce by embedding upskilling at the core of its HR strategy. The result: a 3-to-1 return on every training dollar invested, a 60% reduction in contract labor, and an 89% employee retention rate — far exceeding the 54% sector average.
Similarly, Salesforce launched its Career Connect bootcamp to help employees gain AI and generative tech skills. With a 75% participation rate, the company filled half of its new positions internally, preserving institutional knowledge while preparing its workforce for the future.
“When companies enable workers to move from underutilized roles into in-demand positions, productivity rises, wages grow, and business performance accelerates,” said Shah. “But if we fail to act intentionally to skill, reskill, and mobilize the workforce we already have, we’ll fall short on innovation, competitiveness, and shared prosperity.”
The encouraging news: workers are ready. What they need is a system built for the speed of today — one that invests in human adaptability as much as in technological advancement.