The U.S. labor market looks to be in a precarious balance, in solid shape for the moment but vulnerable to a rapid worsening.
That's the implication of the chart above, which captures the relationship between the rate of job openings and unemployment. Based on this historical experience, if employers were to pull back on the number of job postings even slightly, it would coincide with a rapid rise in the jobless rate.
- It helps explain why the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates even as inflation is elevated and financial markets are booming.
The relationship between vacancies and unemployment is known as the Beveridge Curve, developed by British economist William Beveridge in the 1940s.
- In 21st century America, the Beveridge Curve has displayed a notable nonlinearity, a kink in the curve. It implies that the labor market could shift relatively quickly from one state to another.
The visual above tells the story. Each dot represents a single month since the year 2000. (The pandemic period is excluded because it distorted economic data so severely.)
- On the left side, the line is mostly vertical. Employers were able to significantly reduce their number of job postings from 2022 to 2024 without generating much of a rise in the unemployment rate.
- But on the right side, the line becomes mostly horizontal. In the horizontal part of the curve, even small cutbacks in job openings coincide with dramatic rises in joblessness.
- In August, both the unemployment rate and the job openings rate stood at 4.3%. As it happens, that's right at the kink in the curve — the spot where the vertical portion gives way to the horizontal portion.
Employers have been cutting back on job postings since the openings rate peaked more than three years ago, with only modest pain for workers. Any further cutbacks in job openings are more likely to hurt.
- The Fed's rate-cutting is a matter of risk management — aiming to lower the odds that unemployment will spike higher.
"By these measures that have been predictive in the past, we look to be fairly close to ending up with some of those nonlinear dynamics," SGH Macro Advisors chief U.S. economist Tim Duy tells Axios.
- "That chart tells you that you could be at this inflection point where if you don't get a floor under the labor market, you could have a big rise in unemployment," he says.
August is the most recent job openings data available, but private sector sources point to a drop since then. As of Sept. 26, the Indeed Job Postings Index was down 2.5% from a month earlier.
Yes, historical patterns are only that. But if employers cut back on hiring intentions even a little, the benign job market of the last few years could change quickly.
Paramount, a Skydance Corporation, today announced the acquisition of The Free Press, a leading independent subscription media company. The combination brings together CBS News' scale and reach with The Free Press' culture-shaping voice and innovative spirit, united in the pursuit of setting a new standard for trusted journalism in America.
The Free Press co-founder and CEO, Bari Weiss, will join CBS News as editor-in-chief.
David Ellison, Chairman and CEO of Paramount, a Skydance Corporation, said: "We are thrilled to welcome Bari and The Free Press to Paramount and CBS News. Bari is a proven champion of independent, principled journalism, and I am confident her entrepreneurial drive and editorial vision will invigorate CBS News. This move is part of Paramount's bigger vision to modernize content and the way it connects - directly and passionately - to audiences around the world."
Ellison continued: "This is an important initiative for our company, and Bari will report directly to me, leading the work of The Free Press and collaborating with our CBS News team in the pursuit of making it the most trusted name in news. We believe the majority of the country longs for news that is balanced and fact-based, and we want CBS to be their home."
The Free Press will maintain its own independent brand and operations, and continue to do reporting, video and audio podcasts, and events for its fast-growing community of subscribers.
Founded in 2021, The Free Press has become one of the largest and fastest growing digital media outlets today, growing revenues 82% during the last 12 months, and subscribers by 86% to 1.5 million overall, with more than 170,000 of them paid. The publication's commitment to independent, fact-based journalism has earned it a broad and influential following that spans generations, geographies, and perspectives.
As editor-in-chief of CBS News, Weiss will shape editorial priorities, champion core values across platforms, and lead innovation in how the organization reports and delivers the news. Weiss will partner with CBS News President Tom Cibrowski, who reports to Paramount's Chair of TV Media, George Cheeks. Cibrowski's decades of journalistic, operational, and broadcast experience provide essential continuity and expertise. Their partnership reflects Paramount's recognition that the future of CBS News as a dynamic, multiplatform newsroom requires unified editorial leadership across television, streaming, digital, audio, social media, and events.
Weiss said: "This is a great moment for The Free Press. This partnership allows our ethos of fearless, independent journalism to reach an enormous, diverse, and influential audience. We honor the extraordinary legacy of CBS News by committing ourselves to a singular mission: building the most trusted news organization of the 21st Century."
To introduce The Free Press to millions of Americans, the site is also lifting its paywall from October 6 through October 12 for a special Free Press "Free Week." Those who register will have full access to all Free Press content, including videos, commentary and a nightly schedule of livestreams that showcase the range of Free Press perspectives. Visit thefp.com for more.
U.S. Jobs Market Faces Uncertainty Amid Government Shutdown
The ongoing government shutdown has halted official labor data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), forcing analysts to rely on private sources to gauge the health of the U.S. jobs market. These sources paint a concerning picture, with signs of a weakening labor market becoming increasingly apparent.
Private Data Signals Weakness
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi highlighted a near-stagnant jobs market in September, with private data from Revelio Labs estimating a modest gain of 60,000 jobs, primarily concentrated in the education and health care sectors. Geographically, job growth was largely limited to high-GDP states like California, New York, and Massachusetts. In contrast, payroll processor ADP reported a decline of 32,000 private jobs, which Zandi noted likely understates the downturn due to additional government job cuts driven by DOGE-related policies. ADP’s data also indicated that only large companies (over 500 employees) added jobs, while smaller firms struggled under the weight of tariffs and restrictive immigration policies.
By averaging Revelio and ADP estimates, Zandi concluded that job growth in September was “essentially nonexistent.” Supporting this view, the Conference Board reported declining consumer confidence in finding jobs, reaching levels not seen since the post-pandemic recovery, suggesting a likely rise in unemployment.
Glassdoor’s data further underscored the slowdown. Chief economist Daniel Zhao noted that while worker confidence edged up slightly in September, it remained lower than a year ago. Wage growth also decelerated, with average salaries dropping 0.4% from August to $71,831 annually, and year-over-year growth slowing to 4.9%—the weakest pace since April 2025.
Markets Unfazed, but Risks Loom
Despite the lack of BLS data, financial markets have remained optimistic, climbing steadily in the absence of definitive negative news. However, Zandi warned that the reliance on private data creates a “serious problem” for accurately assessing the economy and informing policy decisions. Private sources, while valuable, offer only a partial view, leaving critical gaps in understanding the broader economic landscape.
Federal Reserve Faces Challenges
With the government shutdown expected to persist past mid-October, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to set interest rates, the Federal Reserve is left with limited visibility. UBS economist Paul Donovan likened private data to “viewing the economy through a keyhole”—clear but narrowly focused. Official data, by contrast, provides a comprehensive perspective, and its absence undermines the accuracy of private models that rely on it.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Oliver Allen cautioned that when the BLS data is eventually released, it may reveal weaker-than-expected growth. He forecasted a 75,000 increase in private payrolls for September, potentially inflated by seasonal adjustments in leisure and hospitality, but only a 50,000 rise in headline payrolls due to further federal job cuts.
The suspension of official labor data has left economists and policymakers navigating uncertain terrain. While private sources like Revelio, ADP, and Glassdoor provide critical insights, their limitations highlight the risk of misjudging the economy’s trajectory. As the shutdown continues, the Federal Reserve and investors face heightened uncertainty, with private data suggesting a jobs market far weaker than markets currently reflect.
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE
DEAL DETAILS
Many Americans still love their heaping portion at restaurants, but a growing number are looking for a little less on their plate — and it looks to be a sales driver.
Olive Garden has proven to be a trailblazer in this unexpected revenue stream. The company, last quarter, began offering smaller portions for lower prices on seven of its dinner entrees. That resulted in a 15% jump in the company's internal affordability metric, it revealed on a recent earnings call.
Ultimately, people prefer a full wallet to an overfull belly, it turns out.
The new offerings also seem to be drawing back people who have cut dining out from their budget. “Maybe our consumers finally evolved that you don’t need to have uneaten food on the plate to feel that you’ve gotten good value,” said Rick Cardenas, CEO of Olive Garden parent company Darden Restaurants, on the earnings call.
The importance of pricing is a lesson that fast casual chains and fast-food chains are learning. Last year, McDonald's went into damage control mode following reports of $8 chicken sandwiches and $18 Big Mac meals. (McDonald’s CEO Joe Erlinger issued a public letter to counter what he called the “viral social posts and poorly sourced reports that McDonald’s has raised prices significantly beyond inflationary rates.")
Whether true or not, consumers believed fast food had gotten too expensive — and not just at McDonald’s. That led to a price war that’s still being fought among fast food chains.
Olive Garden isn't the only company experimenting with less for less. P.F. Chang's has begun offering different portion sizes for its entrees and select appetizers. And The Cheesecake Factory has expanded its "Bites" menu, which offers smaller portion sizes at a lower price.