In light of the rapid advancements that AI tools have made since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, people have been pondering the potential of artificial intelligence to replace certain occupations, trying to figure out if and how the nascent technology will change the way people work. And while the focus of discussions like this is often on the risk of certain jobs being replaced by emerging technologies, these shifts, as well as societal changes, usually offer new employment opportunities as well.
Think of the rise of e-commerce, for example: while it has led to a decline in retail jobs and is projected to continue to do so, it has supported strong job growth in transportation and warehousing, and still does. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment Projections, transportation and material moving will be among the fastest-growing occupational groups for the coming decade as well, projected to add 580,000 jobs by 2034, with warehouse workers and truck drivers particularly in demand.
By far the biggest increase in employment is expected in the healthcare and social assistance sector, which is driven less by technological changes and more by demographic shifts. Due to the ageing population and the growing prevalence of chronic conditions, the wider healthcare sector is projected to account for 1.7 million new jobs by 2034, making up one third of all new jobs expected by the end of the projection period.
Looking at individual occupations, this trend is also evident, with home health and personal care aids projected to be by far the fastest-growing occupation over the next decade, adding 740,000 jobs by 2034. With registered nurses, medical and health service managers, as well as nurse practitioners, also in the top 10, it’s clear that the health sector as a whole is going to be a major driver of employment growth in the near future.
Long before the emergence of artificial intelligence, which many fear will make some jobs obsolete, technological advancements have altered the way people work, making some occupations disappear, while others have emerged. Did you know, for example, that people used to work as living alarm clocks before actual alarm clocks became a thing? “Knocker uppers”, as they were called, would walk around in industrial England, wielding a long stick with which they’d tap on workers’ doors to wake them in time for their shifts. There also used to be “computers long before the arrival of personal computers. They were people performing mathematical calculations, a service that is no longer required today.
So which jobs might be next? Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its Occupational Employment Projections - a report that looks at the U.S. labor market as a whole for the next 10 years, projecting changes in employment by occupation and revealing which jobs are most at risk from automation or other technological and societal shifts. In its latest edition covering the 2024-2034 period, the BLS identified four occupational groups that are projected to lose jobs over the next decade: office and administrative support occupations, production occupations, sales and related occupations, and occupations in farming, fishing, and forestry.
As the following chart shows, cashiers, who are at risk of being replaced by self-checkout, are projected to see the biggest drop in employment over the next decad,e with 313,600 fewer jobs in 2034 than in 2024. Other jobs high on the list are office clerks and customer service representatives, the latter in particular vulnerable to the rise of AI-powered customer service chatbots. When looking at relative employment changes, word processors and typists (-36 percent), roof bolters (-34 percent) and telephone operators (-27 percent) are the most quickly disappearing jobs, none of which move the needle in absolute numbers, however, due to them being relatively rare occupations to begin with.