The U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the year ending in March than estimated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday.
The labor market had less momentum than previously known over the past year, even as the current hiring slowdown raises concerns about the economy's health.
The data, which is preliminary, suggests that President Trump came into office with a labor market that was weaker than initially thought. It continued to weaken after his inauguration.
The BLS compiles monthly jobs reports based on surveys from households and businesses.
- The agency updates that data on a lag with more complete information from unemployment insurance tax records.
- This report — the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — can show drastic revisions of previously released data.
- The revisions released on Tuesday were worse than the downward adjustment of 700,000 anticipated.
There are fresh signs that the labor market slowdown continued in recent months.
- The August jobs report showed just 22,000 jobs added last month, while revised figures for June indicated the economy shed jobs for the first time since 2020.
The BLS has been under attack from the Trump administration. Trump fired the agency head last month after revisions showed disappointing jobs growth.
- Trump has seized on data from previous QCEW reports, suggesting — without evidence — the figures were politicized.
- Top Trump economic officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have been warning that today's report would show notably slower jobs growth.
- "We're going to get the revisions for last year next week," Bessent said on NBC News "Meet the Press" on Sunday. "I'm not sure what these people who collect the data have been doing."
- US job growth just got a massive reality check.
The BLS’s preliminary benchmark revision cut -911,000 jobs from the year through March 2025 (-0.6%). That means job growth was running at roughly half the pace first reported.
📉 Biggest markdowns: retail & wholesale, leisure & hospitality, professional services, manufacturing.
📊 One of the largest downward adjustments in years.
🏦 Adds pressure on the Fed to begin rate cuts at their Sept. 17 meeting.
My takeaway: the labor market slowdown isn’t just “starting”—it’s been underway longer than the headlines suggested. That has direct implications for consumer behavior, real estate leasing, and investment strategy. - Surprise: It's been a lot harder to find a job than the stats have been saying. Employers have hired about half as many people as we thought this past year.
And hiring in the past few months has been almost half that rate.
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that employers added 911,000 fewer jobs from March 2024 - March 2025 than initially reported. That's massive.
How did we get the numbers so wrong?
Think of counting jobs like estimating attendance at a huge outdoor festival while it's happening. You can see the main crowd clearly, but new people keep arriving, others leave, and some areas are hard to see.
The BLS surveys about 121,000 businesses, representing about 631,000 individual worksites every month. But new companies open and close constantly, so they use a "birth-death model" to estimate jobs at businesses not yet in their survey.
Once a year, they get the full picture using unemployment insurance records covering 95% of all jobs, like counting ticket sales after the festival ends.
Which industries got hit hardest in the revisions?
▪️Leisure & Hospitality: -176,000 jobs
▪️Professional & Business Services: -158,000 jobs
▪️Retail Trade: -126,000 jobs
▪️Wholesale Trade: -110,000 jobs
▪️Manufacturing: -95,000 jobs
Why were the estimates so off?
The BLS found two main sources of error from responses, but they haven't yet analyzed whether fewer new businesses opened than expected or more businesses closed than the model originally predicted.
Why does this matter?
It's mostly old news - this data covers 5-17 months ago. But it confirms the job market has been worse than we realized.
What's happening right now?
The recent data is concerning:
▪️June-Aug avg: Just 29,000 new jobs/mo (less than half last year's pace) (Normal is about 150k/mo)
▪️Young workers hit hardest: 20-24yo unemployment is double the broader rate
▪️Manufacturing down 78,000 jobs this year
Clearing up misconceptions:
No, the BLS isn't "faking" data. This annual statistical revision process has existed for 90 years. Large revisions happen regularly, though this was a much larger revision than the 10-year average.
So why has hiring slowed so much?
▪️Some AI impact: NY Fed data shows 12% of companies using AI hired fewer workers because of it. This matches Dallas and Atlanta Fed findings.
▪️Natural correction: After pandemic over-hiring, plus manufacturing has been contracting for most of the last few years.
▪️Policy uncertainty: The Fed's latest Beige Book notes businesses in most regions are "hesitant to hire because of weaker demand and uncertainty over the near-term outlook."
The bottom line: It's a combination of technology changing how we work, natural economic cycles, and businesses hitting pause due to policy uncertainty.
