The July JOLTS report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows little change from June: the job market is still in a holding pattern of low turnover with sluggish hiring & quits.
🤝 The hiring rate was unchanged at 3.3% in July, holding at levels consistent with the 2013 job market, early in the post-housing bust recovery. Sluggish hiring is a factor in why Americans feel the job market isn't working—it blocks entry for new/returning workers + upward mobility for the employed.
👋 The quits rate tells a similar story to hires. It was unchanged at 2% in July and shows that employed workers still aren't getting the opportunities to hop to a better job that they were just a few years ago during the "Great Resignation" era. Quits and hires have both held largely flat over the last year.
➗ Job openings fell slightly in July to 7,181,000, and the job openings-unemployed worker ratio fell below 1.00 for the first time post-COVID. There's nothing magical about the 1.00 threshold, but for all the attention this ratio got early in Covid, it does emphasize how much softer the job market is now compared to just a few years ago.
❌ Layoffs were largely unchanged in July at 1,808,000, essentially in line with the pre-Covid avg. Layoffs have slowly & unsteadily inched upward over the last few years, though slower hiring appears to be the more widespread factor behind stalling worker progress up the career ladder right now.
🩺 Health care & social assistance job openings dropped sharply to 1,254,000, below their pre-Covid peak. While we should take this data with a grain of salt because of how volatile it is month-to-month, this is especially concerning as the health care industry has been driving the job market—if not for health care & social assistance's job gains, we would have had net job losses each of the last 3 months.
The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reveals that job openings declined to 7.2 million in July 2025, reflecting a decrease from the revised figure of 7.4 million in June. This adjustment continues a pattern of gradual softening in the labor market, with the job openings rate holding steady at 4.3 percent.
Although this downward trend may raise concerns about labor market momentum, it does not inherently predict underwhelming results in the forthcoming nonfarm payrolls report, due for release on Friday. Notably, current job vacancy levels are akin to those recorded in 2018, when the economy demonstrated resilience and consistent expansion. During that year, the unemployment rate averaged approximately 3.9 percent, and annual GDP growth reached 2.9 percent, underscoring a period of stability without major disruptions.
Key industry shifts in July include significant reductions in job openings within health care and social assistance (-181,000), arts, entertainment, and recreation (-62,000), and mining and logging (-13,000). Hires remained stable at 5.3 million, with a rate of 3.3 percent, while total separations also held at 5.3 million, including 3.2 million quits and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. These metrics suggest a balanced adjustment influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies aimed at inflation control, rather than signaling an economic downturn.
Although this downward trend may raise concerns about labor market momentum, it does not inherently predict underwhelming results in the forthcoming nonfarm payrolls report, due for release on Friday. Notably, current job vacancy levels are akin to those recorded in 2018, when the economy demonstrated resilience and consistent expansion. During that year, the unemployment rate averaged approximately 3.9 percent, and annual GDP growth reached 2.9 percent, underscoring a period of stability without major disruptions.
Key industry shifts in July include significant reductions in job openings within health care and social assistance (-181,000), arts, entertainment, and recreation (-62,000), and mining and logging (-13,000). Hires remained stable at 5.3 million, with a rate of 3.3 percent, while total separations also held at 5.3 million, including 3.2 million quits and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. These metrics suggest a balanced adjustment influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies aimed at inflation control, rather than signaling an economic downturn.
Job Openings Fall to Lowest in Ten Months
U.S. job openings dropped to 7.2 million in July, down from a revised 7.4 million in June and the weakest level since last fall. Hires and separations both held steady at 5.3 million, quits stayed at 3.2 million, and layoffs remained at 1.8 million. Employers are posting fewer new jobs, but they are also holding tight to the workers they already have.
This report, known as JOLTS, is one of the most closely watched reads on the labor market. It measures vacancies, hires, and separations straight from employers, and a job only counts as “open” if it could start within 30 days, and companies are actively recruiting. That makes it an unusually direct measure of labor demand.
But JOLTS is also one of the most controversial data points in the economic landscape. It is based on a sample of businesses, subject to major revisions, and often swings more than other labor indicators. Even Federal Reserve officials have questioned how much weight it deserves. Still, markets and policymakers react because there is no better high-frequency signal of how hungry businesses are for workers.
The July decline reinforces a powerful theme in today’s economy: no hire, no fire. Companies are pulling back on job postings, signaling caution, yet they are not cutting staff. Workers are not quitting in waves, but they are also not trapped in place. It is a labor market that is cooling at the edges while staying solid at the core.
This balance matters. It means unemployment stays low and consumer spending holds up even as wage pressures ease. It shapes how the Fed thinks about inflation, it affects how businesses plan for growth, and it ripples through to credit markets, housing demand, and discretionary spending.
That is why Havas Edge tracks JOLTS. Labor demand is the pulse of the economy. It tells us where confidence is building, where caution is setting in, and how the choices made in boardrooms and at the Fed translate into real-world consumer behavior.
U.S. job openings dropped to 7.2 million in July, down from a revised 7.4 million in June and the weakest level since last fall. Hires and separations both held steady at 5.3 million, quits stayed at 3.2 million, and layoffs remained at 1.8 million. Employers are posting fewer new jobs, but they are also holding tight to the workers they already have.
This report, known as JOLTS, is one of the most closely watched reads on the labor market. It measures vacancies, hires, and separations straight from employers, and a job only counts as “open” if it could start within 30 days, and companies are actively recruiting. That makes it an unusually direct measure of labor demand.
But JOLTS is also one of the most controversial data points in the economic landscape. It is based on a sample of businesses, subject to major revisions, and often swings more than other labor indicators. Even Federal Reserve officials have questioned how much weight it deserves. Still, markets and policymakers react because there is no better high-frequency signal of how hungry businesses are for workers.
The July decline reinforces a powerful theme in today’s economy: no hire, no fire. Companies are pulling back on job postings, signaling caution, yet they are not cutting staff. Workers are not quitting in waves, but they are also not trapped in place. It is a labor market that is cooling at the edges while staying solid at the core.
This balance matters. It means unemployment stays low and consumer spending holds up even as wage pressures ease. It shapes how the Fed thinks about inflation, it affects how businesses plan for growth, and it ripples through to credit markets, housing demand, and discretionary spending.
That is why Havas Edge tracks JOLTS. Labor demand is the pulse of the economy. It tells us where confidence is building, where caution is setting in, and how the choices made in boardrooms and at the Fed translate into real-world consumer behavior.
