For years, switching jobs was the fastest way to secure a significant salary bump. But that trend appears to be over.
According to a new report from the Bank of America Institute, job switchers are now seeing pay raises that are on par with those who stay with their current employer. The shifting labor market—especially in professional sectors—is giving employers more leverage when it comes to compensation.
“The balance of power is shifting back towards firms that are hiring,” the report notes.
What's Changing
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Job switching is defined as changing employers, occupations, or job responsibilities within the past three months.
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In July, both job switchers and stayers saw an average wage increase of 4.3%, based on government data cited in the report.
This marks a major shift. Since 2010, job switchers consistently outpaced stayers in terms of wage growth, with the gap peaking during the "Great Resignation" of 2021–2022, when a hot labor market fueled job mobility and pay spikes.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
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Bank of America's internal data shows a slightly higher 7% median pay raise for job switchers—still well below the 20%+ raises some saw during the peak of the Great Resignation.
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Hiring slowdowns and global uncertainties, including tariff-related pressures, are prompting many employers to pause or scale back recruitment.
What This Means
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For professionals, the era of leveraging job moves for quick financial gain may be fading.
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For employers, this could lead to greater retention and more leverage in salary negotiations.
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For workers, it may be a smarter strategy—for now—to focus on advancement and visibility within their current role rather than jumping ship.
As The Economist recently put it: It might be time to log off LinkedIn and start impressing your boss.
A major new study from Stanford University has delivered some of the clearest evidence yet that AI is already displacing workers—particularly young, entry-level employees. The research, which analyzed payroll data from ADP (the largest U.S. payroll provider) between late 2022 and mid-2025, reveals a sharp decline in job opportunities for early-career workers in roles highly susceptible to automation, such as customer service and software development. Job postings in these sectors dropped by 16% in just three years.
Why is late 2022 significant? That’s when OpenAI launched ChatGPT, triggering a rapid adoption of generative AI across industries. According to Erik Brynjolfsson, one of the study's lead authors and a Stanford economist, the pace and breadth of this shift is unlike anything we’ve seen outside of pandemic-era disruptions.
But the study highlights an important nuance: the effect of AI on hiring depends heavily on how companies choose to use it.
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Companies that use AI to augment workers' skills are hiring more.
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Companies that use AI to replace workers are hiring fewer.
This distinction matters. When AI is implemented to boost productivity rather than cut costs, it can unlock new value and even create jobs—especially for experienced workers whose tacit knowledge and “on-the-job” expertise are difficult to replicate with machines. These seasoned professionals are, for now, benefiting from the AI boom.
However, the longer-term risks are harder to ignore. If fewer young workers are hired into entry-level positions today, there may be a serious shortage of skilled talent down the line. Brynjolfsson calls this trend a “canary in the coal mine,” suggesting that as AI capabilities grow, even more advanced roles may be at risk.
What This Means for Your Business
Whether or not your company is in the AI sector, this research has implications for hiring and workforce planning:
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Recruitment will get more competitive: You may see a surge in applications for basic office roles, while simultaneously struggling to attract experienced professionals, who are now in higher demand.
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You need a long-term talent strategy: If entry-level roles disappear, so too does the pipeline of future experts. This could lead to talent gaps in specialized areas within a few years.
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Staying updated is no longer optional: AI is evolving rapidly. Decisions you made a year ago about its role in your company may already be outdated. Regular reassessment and ongoing education—for leadership and staff alike—will be critical to staying competitive.
This research makes one thing clear: AI isn’t just a future consideration. It’s already transforming the labor market, and its influence is only accelerating. How your company chooses to respond will determine whether AI becomes a competitive advantage—or a disruption.
Change is a team sport.
When the stakes rise, I do something radical: I pick up the phone (yes—your smartphone still makes calls). I ring a few friends and colleagues to brainstorm, pressure-test my hypothesis, and—sometimes—just vent. That helps too.
How I use my “Change Council”:
✔️ Keep 5–7 trusted friends, colleagues, or ex-colleagues who’ll brainstorm with you—and call your BS when you need it
✔️ Share a crisp 1–2 pager: what you’re seeing, the challenge, and options to act/learn/get more data
✔️ Ask for feedback on your read, context from what they’re seeing, and red flags in your plan
✔️ Play out the plan together—and adjust sequencing
What usually happens:
🆕 Fresh info shifts my perception
🎯 My point of view sharpens, and I can say it better
📣 Comms—vision, plan, and why now—get stronger
💡 Confidence grows (or I pause to gather more data, which is a win too)
Prompts I always ask:
“What are YOU seeing?”
“Am I missing something?”
“What would you do in my place?”
Six smart voices + a good pre-read beats going it alone.
Everyone’s talking about AI — and rightfully so.
It’s transforming how we work, what we create, and how fast we move.
But here’s what I’m focused on:
How do we integrate AI into the People & Culture space without losing the humanity that makes organizations thrive?
At IAB & Tech Lab, we sit at the intersection of media, advertising, technology — and now, increasingly, AI.
We see the innovation. We feel the speed. But we also understand the human cost of getting it wrong.
Here’s where I stand as a People & Culture leader:
🧠AI is a tool — not a replacement.
It can streamline tasks, personalize learning, and even support recruitment workflows. But it can’t build trust, deliver empathy, or replace real connection.
🧩 HR must become AI-fluent.
Not to chase trends, but to design smarter systems that serve both business needs and the employee experience. We can't sit on the sidelines — we need to lead.
📣 Communication matters more than ever.
As AI enters the chat, people will have questions. Clear, transparent communication is non-negotiable. Ambiguity breeds fear. Context builds confidence.
⚖️ Partnering with legal to assess risk is a must.
We’re not just shaping the future of work — we’re navigating new legal, ethical, and compliance territory. At IAB & Tech Lab, collaborating with our legal team ensures our approach is thoughtful, intentional, and protects both the business and our people.
❤️🔥 Culture must stay human.
No tech — no matter how advanced — can replace belonging, psychological safety, or the energy that comes from a purpose-driven team.
At IAB, we’re embracing the future while anchoring in our values.
We’re asking the real questions:
→ How do we keep humanity at the center of innovation?
→ What do our people need to feel supported, not replaced?
→ Where can AI elevate — not erase — the employee experience?