Americans Haven’t Felt This Gloomy About Jobs Since the Great Recession
Public anxiety over the job market has spiked, reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Why it matters: Fears of rising unemployment have intensified after President Trump announced steep tariffs on foreign goods. While the economy has slowed, it has so far avoided the collapse many predicted earlier this year. Still, consumers remain braced for trouble ahead.
By the numbers:
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62% of consumers expect unemployment to rise within the next year, according to the University of Michigan’s latest survey.
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That level of pessimism matches the lows of the Great Recession.
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Despite concerns, the unemployment rate remains at just 4.2% as of July.
What they’re saying:
“Although CPI inflation has not surged, our data show that consumers are still bracing for an increase in inflation to come,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey. “Moreover, consumers are also concerned that labor markets will weaken.”
The contrast:
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Then (2008): The economy was collapsing—stocks were plunging, unemployment claims were skyrocketing, and joblessness would peak at 10%.
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Now (2025): Growth is slowing, hiring has cooled, but layoffs remain limited. Unemployment filings are even lower than in mid-2021, when only 14% of Americans feared job losses.
The bottom line: Consumers are on edge, expecting the worst. Yet so far, the data tells a different story—spending has held up, and the job market remains steadier than sentiment suggests.