A new Stanford study has found that artificial intelligence is already reshaping the job market—hitting younger, less-experienced workers the hardest.
Until now, concern about AI displacing workers has been mostly speculative. The new research offers some of the first clear evidence that entry-level hiring is shrinking in fields directly affected by AI.
Using payroll data from ADP, researchers discovered that employment among 22–25-year-olds in AI-exposed roles—such as software development and customer support—has fallen 16% since late 2022.
“This is the fastest, broadest change I’ve seen in my career,” said economist Erik Brynjolfsson, who led the study. The only recent parallel, he noted, was the sudden shift to remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Who’s impacted:
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Younger workers are seeing the steepest declines.
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More experienced employees in the same industries have not faced measurable job losses.
Brynjolfsson believes the difference lies in tacit knowledge. AI, much like new graduates, is strong in theory but lacks the subtle, experience-based skills that seasoned workers rely on.
If entry-level workers can’t find jobs, industries may struggle to build the next generation of experienced talent. “We have to think about how the labor market adapts so people can still climb the career ladder,” Brynjolfsson warned.
Not all companies are reacting the same way. Firms that use AI to augment workers are still hiring, while those using it as a replacement are cutting staff.
The big unknown is whether AI’s impact will remain concentrated at the entry level or move up the ladder as the technology advances. Younger workers may be the first wave, but others could follow.
Brynjolfsson and his team are now developing an “AI economic dashboard” that will track hiring and wage data in near-real time, helping both employers and workers see where new skills are most in demand.