The core of the problem lies in a combination of factors:
Exploding Western Demand: Matcha has become a health-conscious trend in the West, with its popularity skyrocketing in recent years.
Mass Tourism in Japan: Post-pandemic, Japan has seen a record influx of international visitors, further increasing domestic consumption and demand for local products like matcha. In 2024, Japan welcomed 36.9 million international visitors, exceeding its 2019 record.
Limited Production Capacity: Despite being a type of green tea, matcha is made specifically from tencha, a shade-grown green tea leaf. Tencha makes up only about 6% of Japan's total tea production, according to the Global Japanese Tea Association.
Weather Dependency: Tencha harvests are heavily reliant on favorable weather conditions. The Kyoto region, a major tencha producer, experienced a hot and dry harvest season in 2025, resulting in a "high-quality but lower-yielding harvest," as described by Zach Mangan of Kettl Tea.
Companies Respond to Scarcity
The impact of these factors is already being felt. As early as October 2024, well-known matcha companies like Ippodo and Marukyu Koyamaen began limiting or halting sales of certain matcha varieties. Marukyu Koyamaen's website still indicates limited availability for all matcha products due to "unexpectedly high volume of orders." Ippodo echoed this sentiment on July 18, stating that "supply constraints are likely to continue."
Soaring Prices and Future Outlook
The imbalance between supply and demand has naturally led to a sharp increase in prices. The Global Japanese Tea Association reported that the average price for tencha in late April 2025 reached 8,235 yen per kilogram, a 1.7-fold increase from the previous year.
While the Japanese agriculture ministry reported that 2024 tencha output was over 2.5 times higher than in 2014, the growth in demand appears to be outstripping these efforts. The matcha market is projected to reach approximately $5 billion by 2028, representing over 10% growth since 2023. However, the question remains whether small farmers and the weather-dependent crop can keep pace with this sustained demand.
The current situation suggests that consumers should brace for continued limited availability and higher prices for their beloved matcha.
A global phenomenon is brewing over matcha, the Japanese bright green tea, as huge demand collides with low supply. The vivid green ingredient is already a star in matcha lattes, doughnuts, and viral recipes, and is fast becoming hard to find or unaffordable for many.
Post‑pandemic tourism to Japan, aided by a weak yen, has increased foreign interest in authentic matcha products. At the same time, social media has inspired cafés and home cooks worldwide to invest in the product. As one U.S. importer, Lauren Purvis of Mizuba Tea Co., reports: “Some cafes are even asking for a kilo a day. They’re desperate to keep up.”
Matcha “offers a compelling alternative” to coffee
Japan’s agricultural ministry said that Matcha production nearly tripled between 2010 and 2023; green tea exports, including matcha, also rose 25% last year to 36.4bn yen ($250m).
“We’re seeing a clear shift in Gen Z preferences. Many are moving away from high-caffeine beverages and alcohol in favour of functional drinks,” Alex Centner, the sales director at specialty coffee roaster MoonGoat Coffee, told PerfectDailyGrind. “With its lower caffeine content and well-documented health benefits, such as extremely high antioxidants, it offers a compelling alternative.”
With supply squeezed and demand booming, prices have jumped, and some tea masters and retailers in Kyoto now limit in‑store sales to one can per customer. Tokyo’s Chazen tea‑ceremony chain reports prices up by roughly 30%, and delivery times stretched from a few days to over a week.
Atsuko Mori, director of the Kyoto-based Camellia Tea Ceremony, told the BBC that it’s “a bit sad” to see matcha used in cooking, where its flavour is often lost; “Matcha is the highest grade of tea and it’s so special to us. So there’s a bit of a contradiction when I hear stories about how it’s resold or used in food,” she said.