The U.S. job market is facing new challenges as long-term unemployment—defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more—has climbed to its highest level in over two years. This surge comes as hiring cools, driven by economic uncertainty tied to tariffs and other pressures, leaving many workers struggling to find a stable footing.
Recent college graduate Jessica Chibuzor-Muko, 22, from Denton, Texas, embodies the frustration. A year after earning her cybersecurity degree—a field once considered a sure bet—she’s sent out over 3,000 applications, landed just five interviews, and received no offers. “The first 50 rejections hit hard,” she said, describing early tears and a growing sense of numbness. She’s since paused her search, taking a part-time role as a nurse’s notetaker and weighing a shift to medicine.
Businesses are feeling the strain too. Kelly Hamilton, who runs a small HR services firm in Chicago, notes that while her payroll and employee relations revenue is up, overall sales are stagnant due to reduced hiring. She’s scaled back, planning to add only one or two staff in 2025. Economic uncertainty, fueled by fluctuating trade policies, is a key culprit. A recent international trade court rejected most of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, but they remain in place during appeals, and new strategies could emerge. “No one knows what’s coming, so everyone’s holding back,” Hamilton said.
Data shows long-term jobless individuals now account for nearly 25% of all unemployed workers—a rise from 20% in early 2020 before the pandemic, though below the 45% peak during the Great Recession or 43% in 2021’s COVID slump. Economists find this troubling, especially for new graduates and labor market entrants. “Long stretches without work can carry a stigma and derail careers,” said Brad Hershbein, a senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
Despite this, the broader labor market appears resilient. Job growth averaged a strong 181,000 in March and April 2025, and the unemployment rate sits at a low 4.2%. Forecasts predict a solid 150,000 jobs added in May, per Barclays and Capital Economics. But experts say these numbers mask caution: businesses, scarred by 2021-2023 labor shortages, avoid layoffs, yet high interest rates, rising wages, and flat consumer demand—now worsened by tariff threats—have curbed hiring. “The economy was already cooling post-COVID, and tariffs are making it tougher,” Hershbein noted.
For those like Chibuzor-Muko, the path forward is uncertain, with long-term unemployment signaling deeper challenges in a shifting economic landscape.