Jobs by JobLookup

Is the Rise of Workwear a Recession Indicator?As Gen-Z flocks to trade jobs, it makes sense that workwear sales would go up. But there’s more to it than that.




Workwear brands such as Carhartt, Dickies, and Caterpillar—once synonymous with industrial and blue-collar labor—are now flying off the shelves. While traditionally valued for their rugged durability, these labels are gaining traction among a broader audience. The trend reflects a cultural shift in how trade work is perceived, but it also points to deeper anxieties about economic uncertainty.

Trade Jobs on the Rise

According to Lauren King, Senior Marketing Director at Wolverine, demand for work boots has surged over the past year. In March alone, sales in the company’s work boot category rose by 5.5%. This growth isn’t just seasonal—it’s part of a larger movement driven by changing attitudes toward skilled trades.

“For decades, the default path was to graduate high school and head straight to a four-year college,” King explains. “But that narrative has been shifting since the pandemic, especially as data shows that trade jobs can be lucrative, fulfilling, and in high demand.”

This change is particularly noticeable among younger consumers: Wolverine’s third-party brand tracking reports indicate growing interest from those aged 18 to 34.

A 2024 McKinsey report supports this observation, noting that the U.S. faces a critical need for skilled labor due to expanding infrastructure projects, real estate redevelopment, and the ongoing energy transition. By 2030, the global renewables sector will require an additional 1.1 million workers to build wind and solar facilities, and another 1.7 million to operate them.

As a result, workwear manufacturers are ramping up production. According to Transparency Market Research, the global industrial workwear market—which includes protective clothing and footwear—was valued at $10.7 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach $19.5 billion by 2031, fueled by rapid global industrialization.

 Gen Z Turns to Trade Work

With AI threatening entry-level white-collar roles, many young people are turning to skilled trades for stability. This generation, which popularized the concept of the “fit check,” is increasingly embracing workwear not just for utility, but as a fashion statement.

A May 2025 Resume Builder survey found that more than 40% of Gen Z adults (born between 1997 and 2010) are currently working in or pursuing trade careers. Their motivations? Flexibility (45%), hands-on work (32%), and long-term job prospects (30%).

One such individual is Laila Quezada, a 23-year-old multi-tradeswoman and entrepreneur. After earning her mechanical engineering degree from Cal Poly Pomona in late 2024, she enrolled in an automation technology program at Southwest Technical College in Utah. Her passion for cars—fueled by years spent restoring a 1967 Ford Mustang—drove her decision.

“There’s something deeply satisfying about physically building something,” she says. “That sense of productivity is missing when you're just staring at a screen all day.”

Quezada also cites job security as a major draw. Her father, a retired union-backed UPS driver, weathered both the 2008 recession and the pandemic with relative financial stability. Watching many of her engineering peers face mass layoffs in 2024 only reinforced her belief that trade skills offer a safer career path.

“I know everything might eventually get automated,” she adds. “So I want to understand the tech side in case I ever need to pivot.”

Beyond her studies, Quezada launched *Pretty Girl Motorsports*, a small apparel line targeting women in motorsports—a niche she felt was underserved. She and her brother also started an LLC for subcontracting projects.

“I like to have multiple avenues open,” she says. “You never know how life will unfold.”

She’s not alone in her outlook. Her classes include a mix of recent high school graduates, returning moms, and career changers—all drawn by the promise of stability and skill development.

Recession Fears Influence Fashion

While the rise in workwear can be tied to increased interest in trade jobs, some analysts see it as a sign of economic anxiety—or even a potential recession indicator.

The *Lipstick Index*, a theory coined by Leonard Lauder of Estée Lauder, suggests that lipstick sales surge during economic downturns as consumers seek affordable luxuries. Similarly, the *Hemline Index*, proposed by economist George Taylor in 1926, posits that shorter skirts signal economic booms, while longer hemlines reflect recessions.

Though these theories are often debated, Dutch economist Marjolein van Baardwijk found some correlation in a 2010 study analyzing skirt lengths and stock performance from 1921 to 2009. She noted that hemlines tended to drop two to three years after economic downturns began.

Other research links conservative dressing and secondhand shopping to times of financial stress. A 2024 University of North Texas case study found that resale fashion gained popularity during periods of instability, especially among younger generations disillusioned with societal and economic shifts.

Following the 2008 recession, secondhand clothing sales jumped by 35%, and during the pandemic, 80% of surveyed consumers said they had either bought or would consider buying used clothes during tough times.

Luxury resale platforms like Vestiaire Collective and The RealReal reported strong profits in 2022 ($376 million and $589 million, respectively), outperforming mainstream resale sites like ThredUp ($280 million). Consumers justify these purchases based on quality, durability, and brand prestige.

Interestingly, ThredUp’s top-selling items in 2022 included Madewell overalls and Carhartt beanies—both staples of blue-collar fashion. In 2023, Patagonia vests and Dr. Martens were also hot sellers.

Meanwhile, minimalist fashion trends like *quiet luxury* gained momentum in 2023, coinciding with Joe Biden’s re-election campaign launch. Then came *stealth wealth*, a trend linked to Donald Trump’s return to political prominence in 2024.

Fashion influencer Haley Sacks (known as Mrs. Dow Jones) noted that spring 2024 saw a rise in trench coats, ballet flats, and understated accessories—echoing van Baardwijk’s hemline theory timeline.

Still, Brett House, an economist at Columbia Business School, cautions against drawing direct lines between fashion trends and economic health.

“We don’t have solid evidence that things like longer hemlines or a resurgence in formal wear reliably predict downturns,” he says. “Even if there’s a correlation, there’s no proof of causation.”

Instead, House argues that the search for new recession indicators reveals a deeper unease among Americans.

“This kind of speculation is a symptom of rising anxiety about jobs and finances,” he adds. “And that’s understandable given the unpredictable policies coming out of Washington.”

The popularity of workwear today stems from a confluence of factors: growing respect for trade professions, generational shifts toward practicality, and a broader cultural embrace of utilitarian fashion. But beneath the surface lies a layer of economic uncertainty—one that may be shaping our wardrobes more than we realize.

Whether workwear becomes a lasting style staple or a temporary reflection of anxious times remains to be seen. For now, though, it’s clear that resilience—both personal and professional—is in fashion.

Post a Comment

Previous Post Next Post