President Donald Trump is approaching the end of the first 100 days of his second term, and it hasn’t unfolded as many investors expected.
Markets cheered after the inauguration of a president who campaigned on sending America’s economy soaring. Instead, the Trump administration’s policies have upended a positive outlook for global growth, sent stocks tumbling to the brink of a bear market, and left investors worldwide questioning the role of US investments as a safe haven.
Over Trump’s first 100 days (which officially end on Wednesday, April 30), stocks have fallen nearly 8%. Stocks started the period stuck in the doldrums, as 2024’s big bull market in technology ran out of steam and investors began to worry about Trump’s tariff threats. More broadly, investors soured on riskier investments and began to gravitate toward more defensive postures. However, the prevailing thinking was that Trump would not move so aggressively that he would tank the stock market.
The picture changed dramatically on the afternoon of April 2, when the scope and scale of new “reciprocal” tariffs announced for dozens of US trading partners stunned investors in the United States and across the globe. Stocks plunged, the dollar and US government bonds slid, and investors sought safety in gold. The “worst since” superlatives that accompanied the market’s declines harkened back to the collapse that accompanied the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Here’s a look at how Trump’s first 100 days have played out across key markets.
Trump’s Near-Bear Market
Thanks in large part to Trump’s levies against Mexico and Canada in the weeks immediately after his inauguration, US stocks had already been in retreat when Trump unveiled his tariffs. The market dove on April 3, and within days it was down as much as 19.4% (excluding dividends) from its most recent record high set just a month and a half earlier on Feb. 19—only a hair away from the 20% decline that marks a bear market. At that point, the stock market was off to its worst start to the year since March 2020.
This marked a 180-degree turn from the optimistic mood on Wall Street in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s election, which saw investors celebrate the prospect of a pro-growth, pro-business administration.
On April 9, amid back-and-forth headlines and contradictory statements from administration officials, Trump reversed course and delayed many of the levies for 90 days. Even as he left in place a 145% tariff on China, the stock market roared higher amid optimism that Trump would continue to retreat on his most aggressive tariffs. The Morningstar US Market Index heads into Trump’s 100th day up just over 11% from its worst levels.
Volatility Reigns Amid Trade Wars
Investors accustomed to relatively smooth sailing in the markets over the last two years have found themselves in unpleasantly volatile territory. The past month alone brought some of the biggest swings the stock market has seen in years. The US Market Index fell a total of more than 10% over two consecutive sessions in early April, only to soar more than 9% on April 9.
That rally was the largest gain in the broad stock market since October 2008, and saw massive gains in stocks that had been beaten up in the tariff downdraft. Apple AAPL, for example, jumped more than 15% that day, its biggest gain since 1998. Tesla TSLA, whose fortunes have become increasingly intertwined with CEO Elon Musk’s political efforts to cut the federal workforce, surged nearly 23%, its largest one-day jump since May 2013.
Stocks have calmed some since Trump’s reversal, but they remain significantly more volatile compared with the beginning of the year. Ongoing changes to the tariff outlook and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have continued to fuel major swings in equities and other markets.
Reflecting this volatility, the stock market rose 2% or more on 10 out of the 68 days the markets were open, making for 15% of the sessions. In all of 2024, moves that large only happened 3% of the time. Even more dramatically, four of those sessions saw US stocks swing by 3% or more. That happened only once in 2024.
Bond Market Yields Jump on Tariff and Fed Worries
While stocks normally attract most of the attention, in the days after the April tariffs announcement, the normally sleepy world of US government bonds began to raise eyebrows and concerns. Government bond yields fell steadily in the early days of the year, but shot higher in the aftermath of the tariff announcement.
Treasury yields usually fall amid a deteriorating economic outlook as investors seek safety in government debt, since more buyers drive prices up and prices move in the opposite direction of yields. In addition, economists significantly raised the odds of a recession, thanks to the negative impact of policy uncertainty and the tariffs themselves, which would usually send bond prices up and yields down.
Bond fund managers and analysts pointed to several forces driving yields higher. One is the inflationary impact of tariffs. Preston Caldwell, Morningstar’s senior US economist, raised his forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure) by 0.6 percentage points to 3.0% for 2025 and by 1.3 percentage points to 3.2% in 2026
Many in the bond market also point to a temporary phenomenon of hedge funds and other short-term traders having to sell bonds to raise cash. But most concerning was the idea that global investors have become less confident about the relative safety of the US financial system. That means they’re likely to demand a higher premium to compensate for the risk associated with US government debt, which translates to higher bond yields.
Investors Seek Safety in Gold Amid Tariff Turmoil
As stocks have struggled, some investors have flocked to gold. The precious metal is often treated as a hedge against economic downturns, geopolitical unease, or sticky inflation, and all three of those scenarios have been top of mind for investors these last few months. The price of gold soared from $2,755 an ounce in January to a record high of more than $3,400 an ounce in April as the equities market whipsawed.
The Crypto President’s Crypto Roller Coaster
Crypto boosters were bullish, as Trump, who has proclaimed himself the crypto president, was expected to lighten the regulation of the industry. However, bitcoin prices tumbled for the majority of Trump’s first 100 days, as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, and bitcoin traded more like technology stocks than an alternative to the US dollar.
The popular cryptocurrency has regained some ground following Trump’s 90-day pause on the April 2 tariffs. Overall, bitcoin prices have fallen 9% over the first 100 days of Trump’s second term.
The Stock Rotation Gains Steam
The first days of Trump’s second term also saw the unwinding of the “America First” theme that has dominated the stock market for a decade or more. Even before the major tariff announcement, investors were dipping their toes into international waters, with Chinese and European markets outperforming the US over the first quarter.
Not all of the moves were related to tariffs. In Europe, Trump’s flagging support for Ukraine led governments to rethink defense spending. Most notably, in Germany, this led to the sudden end to the country’s decades-old spending “brake,” which limited its ability to increase defense outlays. That sparked a massive rally in German and other European defense stocks.
And while US equities have struggled to regain ground, international markets have fared better in the aftermath of Trump’s tariff announcement.
Investors haven’t only rotated out of the US market; they’ve also rotated within it. A deteriorating outlook for growth and inflation has dented the performance of nearly every sector this year, with one notable exception: consumer staples.
This is the lone category that has posted a meaningful gain during Trump’s first 100 days. Consumer staples stocks tend to have less exposure to tariffs than their discretionary counterparts, and they have proved a relative safe haven as other sectors struggle. Consumer staples have gained nearly 4% since Trump took office in January.
Diversification Worked
Amid the dramatic headlines and market turmoil, there was one market trend that was perhaps most important to investors: Diversified portfolios were better at riding out the storm.
Even as the bond market shuddered in April, fixed-income markets continued to insulate investors against the worst of the stock market’s losses. The Morningstar US Moderate Target Allocation Index, which contains a diversified mix of 60% equities and 40% bonds and was designed as a benchmark for a classic 60/40 portfolio, has lost 2.1% over Trump’s first 100 days, compared with 8% losses for the total US stock market index.
Merck plans to spend $1 billion on a new facility in Delaware, joining other pharmaceutical giants in making significant investments in the U.S. as the White House mulls imposing tariffs on the sector, The Wall Street Journal reports. The plant will manufacture a new version of Merck’s Keytruda drug, becoming the first U.S.-based site to produce the top-selling cancer medication in-house. The move follows announcements from Eli Lilly, Novartis, and Roche, which plan to allocate billions toward U.S.-based manufacturing.
Americans’ confidence in the economy slumped for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as anxiety over the impact of tariffs takes a heavy toll.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points in April to 86, its lowest reading since May 2020. Nearly one-third of consumers expect hiring to slow in the coming months, nearly matching the level reached in April 2009, when the economy was mired in the Great Recession.
The figures reflect a rapidly souring mood among Americans, most of whom expect prices to rise because of the widespread tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. About half of Americans are also worried about the potential for a recession, according to a survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center.
“Rattled consumers spend less than confident consumers,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, in an email. “If confidence sags and consumers retrench, growth will go down.”
A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions, and the job market plunged 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level in more than 13 years. The reading is well below 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.
How this gloomy mood translates into spending, hiring, and growth will become clearer in the coming days and weeks. On Wednesday, the government will report on U.S. economic growth during the first three months of the year, and economists are expecting a sharp slowdown as Americans pulled back on spending after a strong winter holiday shopping season.
And on Friday, the Labor Department will release its latest report on hiring and the unemployment rate. Overall, economists expect it should still show steady job gains, though some forecast it could report sharply reduced hiring.
The stark decline in consumer confidence also likely reflected the sharp swings in stock and bond prices that roiled financial markets earlier this month. While all age groups and most income brackets reported lower confidence, the decline was steepest among households earning more than $125,000 and among consumers 35 to 55 years old.
Though major U.S. markets rebounded over the past week, the S&P 500 is still down 6% for the year and the Dow Jones has lost 5%. The growth-heavy Nasdaq is down 10% in 2025.
The Conference Board said that mentions of tariffs in write-in responses reached an all-time high this month, with the duties on the top of consumers’ minds. Trump has imposed a tariff of 10% on nearly all imports, as well as a huge 145% tariff on most goods from China. He has imposed separate import taxes on steel, aluminum, and cars.
More Americans are also now worried that the economy could tip into a recession, with the proportion of consumers expecting a downturn in the next 12 months reaching a two-year high.
Fewer consumers said they were planning to buy a home or car in the next six months. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slowed last month in a lackluster start to the spring homebuying season as elevated mortgage rates and rising prices discouraged those looking.
And Americans also said they would spend less on services. The proportion of Americans planning an overseas vacation in the next six months fell to 16.4%, down from 24.1% in December. And the proportion of consumers planning to spend more on dining out plummeted by nearly the most on record in April, the Conference Board said.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed a pair of orders on Tuesday to soften the blow of his auto tariffs with a mix of credits and relief from other levies on materials, and his trade team touted its first deal with a foreign trading partner.
MORE TARIFF UNCERTAINTY
WRONG ON EVERY PREDICTION
In its earnings release today, UPS says it will cut 20,000 operations jobs in 2025 and close 73 buildings by the end of June as it expects more declines in parcel volumes.
UPS had decided in January to reduce the number of packages it takes from Amazon, saying that it wants to cut down the number of unprofitable packages that were unhealthy for its network, but keep more profitable ones like returns and other seller-fulfilled parcels. UPS added that it wants to be less reliant on labor and to invest in more automation.
The parcel giant also declined to update its previous full-year outlook amid macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff changes.
“Current consumer sentiment is down from where it was at the beginning of the year,” said UPS CEO Carol Tomé.
Customers who import goods are still considering options. Small businesses that source solely from China are facing more difficulties. UPS says it expects ~a 25% fall in demand in the China to U.S. trade lane.
But that could be offset by higher demand in China to non-U.S. lanes and from non-China to U.S. lanes. When tariffs were implemented during Trump's first administration, UPS said its international business actually grew.
Global same-store sales declined 1 percent, driven by a 2 percent drop in comparable transactions (traffic), partially offset by a 1 percent increase in average ticket.
North America same-store sales fell 1 percent, with ticket up 3 percent. U.S. same-store sales dropped 2 percent on a 4 percent decline in traffic and a 3 percent increase in average ticket. A year ago, U.S. and North America comps fell 3 percent on a 7 percent drop in traffic. So roughly 5 percent down on a two-year view for same-store sales and 11 percent for traffic. Sequential quarter-to-quarter improvement, however, after North America and U.S. comps declined 4 percent in Q1 2025 on negative traffic of 8 percent.
Starbucks opened 213 net new stores in Q2, ending the period with 40,789 locations, split 53 percent company-operated and 47 percent licensed. The U.S. and China comprised 61 percent of the global portfolio, with 17,122 and 7,758 stores, respectively.
Consolidated net revenues increased 2 percent to $8.8 billion.
“My optimism has turned into confidence that our 'Back to Starbucks' plan is the right strategy to turn the business around and to unlock opportunities ahead,” CEO Brian Niccol said. “Improving transaction comp in a tough consumer environment at our scale is a testament to the power of our brand and partners getting 'Back to Starbucks.' We are on track, and if anything, I see more opportunity than I imagined."
The web retailer was reportedly preparing to list how tariffs changed product prices online, but once that was raised to White House officials, they slammed it and called it a "hostile and political" act.
Shares of Amazon dropped after those comments, but then Amazon came out and clarified that this plan was never approved and wasn't going to happen.
The stock rebounded after that report emerged.
Multiple news outlets have since reported that the president called Bezos to express his views on the matter, and then the whole thing was scrapped internally.
I have no idea how much of this is actually true, but it's the latest signal as to just how sensitive consumers and Wall Street are to updates on tariffs.
ENDS AUTOS TARIFF 'STACKING'
CREDIT FOR U.S. VEHICLE ASSEMBLY
.webp)
RATIONALE
Major orders canceled. Containers of products are left stranded overseas. No roadmap for what comes next.
The Trump administration raised tariffs on goods from China to 145% in early April. Since then, small business owners who depend on imports from China to survive have become increasingly desperate as they eye dwindling inventory and skyrocketing invoices.
President Donald Trump seemed to back down somewhat last week when he said he expected the tariffs to come down “substantially.” That helped set off a rally in the stock market. But for small businesses that operate on razor-thin margins, the back and forth is causing massive upheaval. Some say they could be just months from going out of business altogether.
The Massachusetts family-owned game company
Game makers are particularly susceptible to the tariffs since the majority of games and toys sold in the U.S. are made in China, according to The Toy Association.
WS Game Co., based in Manchester-by-the-Sea, Massachusetts, is a family-owned business that licenses Hasbro board games like Monopoly, Candy Land, and Scrabble and creates deluxe versions of them. Its most popular line of games comes in boxes that look like vintage books and sells for $40.
The company’s games were featured in Oprah’s Favorite Things list in 2024 and sold in 14,000 stores in North America, from big national chains to mom-and-pop stores, said owner Jonathan Silva, whose father founded the company in 2000.
All of WS Game’s production is done in China. The tariffs have brought the past 25 years of healthy growth to a screeching halt.
Over the past three weeks, WS Game has had three containers of finished games, worth $500,000, stranded in China. It lost orders from three of the largest U.S. retailers, totaling $16 million in business. And there’s not much Silva can do about it.
“As a small business, we don’t have the runway or the capabilities to move manufacturing on a whim,” said Silva, who has 22 employees. He said the tariffs have “disrupted our business and put us on the verge of insolvency” and estimates he has about a four-month runway to stay afloat if nothing changes.
“We’re really hoping that cooler heads prevail,” he said.
Artificial flowers in Kentucky
Jeremy Rice co-owns House, a home-décor shop in Lexington, Kentucky, that specializes in artificial flower arrangements for the home. About 90% of the flowers his business uses are made in China.
Rice uses dozens of vendors. The largest are absorbing some of the cost of the tariffs and passing on the rest. One vendor is raising prices by 20% and another by 25%. But Rice is expecting smaller vendors to increase prices by much higher percentages.
The house offers mid-range artificial flowers. A large hydrangea head will retail for $10 to $16, for example. China is the only place where manufacturers higher quality silk flowers. It would take a vendor years to open a factory in a different country or move production somewhere else, Rice said.
Rice ordered his holiday décor early this year. But even after stocking up ahead of the tariffs, he only has enough everyday floral inventory to last two to three months.
“After that, I don’t know what we’re going to do,” he said.
Rice is concerned that the trade war will wipe out a bunch of mom-and-pop stores, similar to what happened in the Great Recession and the pandemic.
“There’s nowhere to turn, there’s nothing to do,” he said.
Tea in Michigan
A tea shop in a Michigan college town is also caught in the middle of the ongoing tariff fight.
“It’s basically just put a big pit in my stomach,” said Lisa McDonald, owner of TeaHaus, located in Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan. McDonald has owned TeaHaus for nearly 18 years and sells tea to customers across the U.S.
Americans drank about 86 billion servings of tea in 2024, according to the Tea Association of the U.S.A.. Almost all of that is imported since tea isn’t grown in the U.S. at scale, due to factors ranging from climate to cost.
McDonald's imports loose-leaf tea from China, India, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and other countries. She says her customer base is “from all over the U.S. and the world.” But she worries there is a limit to what they’ll spend. Her premium teas can cost up to $33 for a 50-gram bag.
“I don’t think I can charge $75 for a 50-gram bag of tea, no matter how amazing that tea is,” she said.
McDonald understands Trump’s rationale for wanting to use tariffs to spur U.S. manufacturing, but says it doesn’t apply to the tea industry.
“We can’t grow tea in the U.S. to the extent that we need. We can’t just flip the industry and ‘make tea great again’ in America. It just can’t happen,” she said.
Car accessories in Oklahoma
Jim Umlauf’s business, 4Knines, based in Oklahoma City, makes vehicle seat covers and cargo liners for dog owners and others. To do so, he needs raw materials such as fabric, coatings, and components from China.
Umlauf has explored manufacturing in countries other than China since 2018, when Trump first instituted a 25% tariff on goods from China, but has run into complications. In the meantime, 4Knines absorbs the extra cost, which Umlauf says has limited its growth and squeezed its margins.
Now, the new tariffs make it nearly impossible to do business. The demand is there, but the company can’t afford to bring over more products.
“We only have a limited amount of inventory left, and without some relief, we’ll run out soon,” Umlauf said.
As a small business owner who has worked hard to develop a high-quality brand, create jobs and contribute to the community, Umlauf is frustrated. He has tried to contact the White House and other decision-makers to ask for small business support. But he’s gotten zero response.
“It’s time for policymakers to consider the full impact of trade policies not just on stock prices or global competitiveness, but on the real people running small businesses,” he said.
Prepare to pay more for a pair of Sambas. “All our products” will eventually cost more as a result of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, sportswear giant Adidas said in a statement Tuesday. Just how much prices will climb remains unclear due to uncertainty about rates. The German brand uses factories in countries facing U.S. tariffs upwards of 40%, and noted it was currently unable to produce almost any of its products in the U.S.