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The Iowa caucuses are a significant event that will test the presidential candidates vying for the 2024 election nomination. Small businesses in Iowa, like the Hamburg Inn and Brewhemia, often find themselves playing host to political figures during this time. While this can lead to increased foot traffic and a potential boost in sales, there are also concerns about the impact on regular customers and the challenges of dealing with Secret Service protocols.
The preparations for hosting a presidential candidate involve strong communication, flexibility, and the ability to handle unpredictable turnouts. Despite the potential drawbacks, the caucuses can bring about a sales increase and contribute to the state's economy. However, this year's caucuses are expected to see a decline in interest due to factors such as extreme weather, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and a lack of enthusiasm for the current political race.
Small businesses, such as Raygun, are projecting a decrease in sales compared to previous caucuses years. This subdued interest is also reflected in the decline in direct spending compared to previous caucuses. Despite this, the caucuses remain a regular occurrence for Iowa's small businesses, and they are accustomed to hosting dignitaries and dealing with the heightened security measures that come with such events.
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It’s because they’re not registered with the Republican Party, which is kicking off the presidential nominating season with its famous caucuses. Or because they don’t want to make the commitment to attend, which involves getting to the nearest of 1,500 caucus sites and sitting in a room — potentially for hours — for the chance to vote on the party’s presidential nominee.
But the winter weather, intimidating even for Iowa, will make an already unrepresentative process even less representative. Elderly Iowans, the backbone of the caucus, are wondering how they will make it to their sites on Monday. Political types are mentally downgrading their expected turnout and wondering who a smaller, harder-core electorate will favor.
All this gives longtime critics of the caucus even more reason to be critical.
“This is no way to begin the election of a president,” said Julian Castro, a former San Antonio mayor, and federal housing secretary who was a Democratic presidential candidate in 2020, when he called for Iowa to have a less prominent role. “You have to be a die-hard who’s willing to trudge through snow and be there for several hours. And if you miss it, your opportunity to vote is gone.”
Democrats already have downgraded Iowa after the state party bungled the vote counting in the 2020 caucuses. Democrats have relegated the state to later in their nominating process after President Joe Biden declared that he wanted more diverse states that better represent his party and the country to cast the first votes. That party’s process starts in South Carolina on Feb. 3, then moves to Nevada, with New Hampshire next in the new order for 2024 even though the state party is going ahead with a Jan. 23 primary that national Democrats say won’t count.
But Republicans have stuck with Iowa, which once was competitive but has swung firmly to the right in the age of Donald Trump, who carried the state in the general election in 2016 and 2020. Its population is whiter, more rural, and evangelical than the nation, but that matches the GOP’s voters better than the Democratic Party’s.
Some Republicans expect a still-robust turnout, but most acknowledge the weather will scare at least some voters away.
What to know
- The details of how the caucuses work can surprise and mystify even hard-core political junkies. Your guide to Iowa.
- After months of campaigning, the Republican candidates vying to unseat President Joe Biden in November are facing their first formal test from voters.
- Why does Iowa launch the presidential campaign? Let’s go back to January of 1972.
- Donald Trump’s campaign is hoping to generate a commanding win in Iowa’s leadoff voting contest by attracting new caucusgoers. This is how an animated character named Marlon could help achieve that goal.
- In 1972, there was one man with a calculator. How Iowa turned the caucuses into an enormous political prize. Our Very Complicated Democracy
“This’ll be worse than we’ve ever had,” said Doug Gross, once a top aide to former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, who said his own 90-year-old mother had decided she couldn’t caucus in these conditions. “It’s going to dampen turnout.”
Brad Anderson, state director of AARP Iowa, said older voters historically decide who wins and loses the contest because “the caucuses do tend to trend older in terms of turnout.”
This caucus might be “somewhat of an outlier,” he said.
The cold and potential snow drifts, especially in rural parts of the state, make conditions “treacherous” for people of all ages, Anderson said. He advised extreme caution, especially for those with mobility issues, and hopes Iowans will take safety into account.
One older woman who lives in a retirement home in Newton telephoned Thad Nearmyer, chair of the Jasper County Republicans, saying she still drives but would be “a bit more comfortable going if somebody else was driving,” he said. She will be asking friends, family, and neighbors for a ride to Monday’s caucuses.
It would be a huge undertaking for the county party to organize rides widely, but Nearmyer recommended that those who want to attend a caucus reach out to friends, family, and neighbors.
“You know, if it was right now with this wind whipping and snow, nobody would be able to make it,” Nearmyer said Friday. “But I think we’ve got time for the roads to clear, the wind to die down. I think it’ll be pretty well-attended.”
Even under better conditions, only a tiny fraction of Iowans even participate in the caucuses. In 2016, 186,000 votes were cast in the Republican caucus in a state population of more than 3.1 million. And that’s what provides the most important kickoff to the contest to lead a nation of 330 million people.
FILE - A woman clears snow off a sidewalk, Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2024, in Des Moines, Iowa. The Arctic-like temperatures that are raising concerns about turnout for the Iowa caucus on Monday, Jan.15, are putting the spotlight on a presidential nominating system that has long been criticized as archaic and undemocratic. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr, File)
The caucuses are a relic of the push to reform party nominating processes in the 1970s, freeing them from the influence of party bosses. They helped vault underdogs such as Democrats Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama into the White House.
Caucuses tend to favor movement candidates — liberal Democrats and conservative, increasingly evangelical Republicans — whose supporters are more willing to carve out time on their calendar and dominate the caucus room.
The small size of the event, and of Iowa overall, is part of the pitch, said Rabia Belt, a Stanford law professor who has been critical of the caucuses
“There are conflicting desires in crafting the nominating process,” Belt said. “If you start with large states or states in expensive media markets, that creates barriers to potential candidates who may not have a lot of money or organizational power at the outset. Also, a small state can allow candidates to tailor their messaging and work on their retail political game during intimate conversations with committed and interested people.”
Seth Masket, a political scientist at Denver University, was preparing on Friday to take 13 of his students to watch the caucuses. He was bracing for the weather, but also for the randomness of the American nominating process.
“No one would ever design this intentionally,” Masket said. “No one would ever design something where the most important contests are in Iowa and New Hampshire — in January!”
Subfreezing temperatures across much of the U.S. left millions of Americans facing dangerous cold as Arctic storms left four dead and knocked out electricity to tens of thousands in the Northwest, brought snow to the South, and walloped the Northeast with blizzard conditions that forced the postponement of an NFL game.
An estimated 95 million people nationwide faced weather warnings or advisories Sunday for wind chills below zero Fahrenheit (minus 17 Celsius). Forecasters said the severe cold was expected to push as far south as northern Texas while the bitter blast sends wind chill readings as low as minus 70 degrees (minus 56 Celsius) in Montana and the Dakotas.
“It takes a matter of minutes for frostbite to set in,” the South Dakota Department of Public Safety said in a statement Sunday urging people to stay indoors.
In Buffalo, New York, where snowfall of 1 to 2 feet (30 to 60 centimeters) was forecast, severe conditions led officials to postpone the Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers NFL playoff game from Sunday to Monday. Winds whipped at 30 mph (48 kph), and snow was falling at a rate of 2 inches (5 centimeters) per hour.
Workers with shovels and trucks worked to clear snow from the field at Buffalo’s Highmark Stadium as the Bills warned volunteers eager to help with the shoveling to stay at home and not defy a travel ban on area roads. A continuing wave of Arctic storms threatens to break low-temperature records in the nation’s heartland and spread cold and snow from coast to coast.
“Looks like a pretty good day to not have a football game,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Buffalo native, posted on X with a video clip of whiteout conditions in western New York City.
At least one Bills player was out in the bad weather Sunday putting his newfound free time to good use. Offensive tackle Ryan Van Demark shared a video on Instagram showing fellow lineman Alec Anderson helping a motorist struggling with icy road conditions.
“Good Samaritan, Alec, helping the people,” Van Demark narrates in the brief clip.
Zack Taylor, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland, warned some parts of the Northeast would see intense snowfall and extreme winds, with gusts up to 50 mph (89 kph) possible.
“That’s why they’re expecting to see near-blizzard conditions at times,” Taylor said.
Across the country in Oregon, more than 120,000 homes and businesses were without electricity, most of them in the Portland metro area, a day after high winds and a mix of snow and ice brought down trees and power lines.
“Given the extent of the damage and the high level of outage events, restoration efforts will continue into the week and customers are encouraged to plan accordingly,” Portland General Electric said in a statement. The utility said it was watching a second weather pattern that could bring high winds and freezing rain on Tuesday.
The City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services said its crews were working non-stop at multiple locations to make emergency repairs and prevent sewage releases into homes and businesses. Portland’s largest sewage pump station, which serves downtown and the surrounding inner city, was under partial service due to a frozen pipe.
Widespread power outages affecting tens of thousands were also reported Sunday in Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Nebraska, the Omaha Public Power District asked customers to conserve electricity to prevent outages.
“The weather came on faster and has been more prolonged than anticipated,” the district said in a statement Sunday.
Airports across the country were impacted. More than half of flights into and out of Buffalo Niagara International Airport were canceled. Scores of flights also were canceled or delayed at Chicago, Denver and Seattle-Tacoma airports.
Forecasters also warned that rapid bursts of heavy snow and wind could cause drastic and sudden drops in visibility in eastern Pennsylvania and parts of northern New Jersey and Delaware with some “near whiteout conditions” possible.
Another Arctic storm that’s dumped heavy snowfall in the Rockies was forecast to push further south, potentially bringing 4 inches to 6 inches (10 to 15 centimeters) of snow to parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and west Tennessee.
Juan Villegas wore layers of clothing beneath his heavy coat Sunday as he and roughly a dozen subcontractors in downtown Des Moines, Iowa, shoveled away a blanket of snow, which also covered park benches and partially buried fire hydrants the day before the state’s presidential caucuses.
Working in temperatures of minus 15 degrees (minus 26 degrees Celsius), Villegas said the best way to feel warm was to “just keep moving.”
“If you stay doing nothing, it’s when you really feel the cold,” Villegas said.
Much of Wisconsin were under advisories through Monday afternoon, with predicted wind chills as low as 30 degrees below zero (minus 34 Celsius).
Even parts of northern Louisiana, Alabama, and Georgia could see snow. In Shreveport, Louisiana, Mary Trammel was among residents who stocked up on bottled water, food, and fuel for generators ahead of subfreezing weather expected to coat some roads in ice and up to an inch (2.5 centimeters) of snow.
“It’s cold out here,” said Tramel, who told KSLA-TV she bought bread and ingredients for enough soup to last days.
Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared a state of emergency in advance to give utility trucks and trucks hauling essential supplies greater flexibility to respond.
Officials in Mississippi’s capital city of Jackson were preparing for days of freezing weather after cold snaps in 2021 and 2022 caused pipes to burst and water pressure to drop across the city of 150,000.
“We feel as confident as we can that we’re prepared for whatever comes our way,” Ted Henifin, Jackson’s interim manager of the city’s long-troubled water system, told WAPT-TV. He said crews were on standby to respond to any broken pipes.
The wild weather didn’t just bring snow and ice. Record high tides that flooded some homes in Maine and New Hampshire on Saturday also swept three historic fishing shacks into the sea from where they had stood for more than 130 years in South Portland, Maine.
“History is just being washed away,” Michelle Erskine said Sunday, a day after capturing video footage of the last two wooden shacks sliding into the ocean.
In Oregon, just south of Portland, 100 trees toppled Saturday, including one that fell on a house and killed a man. Two other people died of suspected hypothermia and a fourth died in a fire that spread from an open-flame stove after a tree fell onto an RV.
The snow and gusting winds had let up Sunday in Oregon, but frigid temperatures meant roads remained treacherous, and much of Portland was shut down. In nearby Lake Oswego, Glenn Prohaska was looking for a business that had WiFi so he could book a hotel. With the power out, the temperature in his home had dropped to the 20s overnight.
“In the 40 years I’ve been here, this is the worst I’ve seen,” he said.