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Americans Without College Degrees Are Crushing It. College Grads? Not So Much.
For the majority of American workers—the ones who never collected a bachelor’s degree—this is one of the strongest job markets in decades. For the ones who did? It’s starting to look like a trap.
Unemployment among workers ages 22–34 who never finished college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, according to Burning Glass Institute analysis. The same age group with degrees is living through one of its worst stretches relative to its own history since 2003. Advanced-degree holders and those in science and tech are getting hit even harder.
For most of the last twenty years, the two groups moved in lockstep. Not anymore. Supply and demand finally showed up with a sledgehammer.
There aren’t enough skilled tradespeople. Older workers are retiring, and immigration has slowed. Meanwhile, the country is producing more bachelor’s degrees than ever, just as AI starts eating the entry-level white-collar work companies used to hand to new grads. “There’s a rapidly growing supply of people with a bachelor’s degree, and you have a rapid decline of people who don’t,” says Burning Glass chief economist Gad Levanon. “I don’t think it’s a temporary thing.”
Absolute unemployment rates still favor the credentialed. Prime-age workers (25–54) with degrees averaged 2.7% unemployment over the twelve months ending in July. High-school-only workers sat at 4.7%. But when you rank each group against its own historical range, the picture flips. Blue-collar and manual-service jobs—construction, manufacturing, food service, security, nursing—look historically tight. STEM, management, and other professional categories look historically soft.
Friday’s jobs report underscored the point: food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs in August, more than a third of the entire month’s gains.
Zachary Blackmon did everything the system told him to do. Bachelor’s in international business and operations management from the University of Cincinnati. Seventy applications. Three interviews. By January, he still had nothing, so he accelerated plans for an MBA. “Students like me who have done everything they’re supposed to do, we’re still facing challenges,” he says. He’s now at the University of Dayton, hoping the next piece of paper will finally open a door.
Not everyone is even in the labor force. Younger workers without degrees are more likely to be sitting it out—illness, disability, school, or pure discouragement. Nearly a quarter of high-school-diploma holders ages 22–27 are not working or looking, versus about one in seven of those with college or advanced degrees.
Levanon isn’t sure how long the drought in entry-level professional jobs lasts, or how far AI and robotics will eventually reach into blue-collar and service work. His advice to recent grads, including one of his own kids: broaden your horizons. Geographic. Occupational. Expectational. “It may be very hard to find a job at top companies, but it’s easier if you’re willing to compromise.”
The old bargain—go to college, get the degree, step onto the professional escalator—is fraying in real time. The people who never bought the ticket are having a better run than they have in years. The ones who did are discovering the escalator has a lot more people on it than steps.