About 2.6 million people in the U.K., or 8% of workers, expect to lose their jobs in the next three months, according to a survey that suggests long-lasting damage to the economy from the coronavirus.

The figures include people who have already been told that they will be made redundant, with young people and the lowest earners at greatest risk, the Resolution Foundation said Wednesday. The analysis found about 2 million people had been unemployed or on furlough for the past six months, a length of time that leaves them at higher risk. A separate British Chambers of Commerce survey found a quarter of the 1,100 businesses polled planning job cuts if government support programs end as planned.

Bleak Outlook

About 8% of workers expect to lose their jobs in the next three months

Source: YouGov for the Resolution Foundation

Note: Survey of 4480 people aged 18-65

The findings puncture forecasts that the economy and most jobs will quickly recover once lockdown restrictions are lifted. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes a rapid vaccination program will allow shops, restaurants, and bars to reopen by the summer, returning most of those unemployed to work.

“While the U.K.’s economic prospects are finally looking up, job insecurity remains high, particularly among those who have spent long periods not working, or who are currently furloughed,” said Nye Committing, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation.

Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders is set to speak on unemployment at an event hosted by the think tank on Thursday. His comments and the foundation’s report will help feed a debate about how aggressively Chancellor of Exchequer Rishi Sunak should support workers through the pandemic in his budget statement on March 3. The central bank is forecasting unemployment will rise from 5% currently to 7.8% by the third quarter, leaving the total number of jobless at 2.7 million.

The resolution called on the Treasury to extend furloughing beyond the end of Covid restrictions. Earlier this week, the Institute for Fiscal Studies also recommended Sunak taper back the furlough program, which is currently due to expire in April, giving companies an incentive to adjust to the new economic reality.

The Resolution analysis counts almost 2 million workers as either unemployed or fully furloughed for the six months through January. Those would have remained out of work in September, October, and parts of December when restrictions were loosened in much of the country. The foundation surveyed almost 6,000 people age 18 to 65.

A full national lockdown came into force in January, forcing all restaurants, bars, and non-essential shops to shut. About 4.5 million people were on furlough last month, half the level prevailing when restrictions were first imposed in March 2020, the report said.

Those people who haven’t worked for longer risk losing skills and missing out on earnings growth, Resolution warned. For those on furlough for the past six months, 21% are bracing for a redundancy notice.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has announced plans to cut about 2,000 jobs from its workforce over the next year.

The company said it had started a full review as it prepares to become a "more agile organization".

It comes after the carmaker confirmed its Jaguar brand will be all-electric by 2025 and that it will keep all three of its UK plants open.

The losses, from its worldwide workforce, will not affect manufacturing staff, a spokesman said.

JLR has its headquarters in Coventry and plants in Castle Bromwich, Solihull, and Halewood near Merseyside.

Thousands of jobs have been lost at the company over the past two years amid a decline in sales, with the firm also previously citing uncertainty caused by Brexit.

Production stopped entirely last March before restarting at a reduced capacity in the summer.

In a statement on Wednesday, the firm said it had to make "every possible efficiency".

"We need to reduce the cost base to achieve a lean foundation, which will allow us to transform most effectively into a more agile organization," a spokesman said.

"We have started to brief our salaried employees about the detail of the organization review.

"This does not impact our hourly paid, manufacturing colleagues. We anticipate a net reduction of around 2,000 people from our global salaried workforce in the next financial year."